| NLCS Preview: Dodgers vs. Phillies |
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The Phillies and Dodgers easily won their opening round series, and now square off in what should be an exciting, evenly matched National League Championship Series. They will meet for the fourth time in the NLCS with L.A. holding a 2-1 all-time advantage. Philadelphia has reached this point thanks to a power filled lineup led by Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. The bullpen backed by Brad Lidge has been very solid all season. Los Angeles has been transformed in recent weeks due to the arrival of Manny Ramirez and the return to health of shortstop Rafael Furcal. Now, Joe Torre fields a strong lineup to pair with the terrific pitching he has had throughout the year. Overall AccuScore simulations have the Dodgers favored slightly to reach the World Series winning 53 percent of the time.
Who Torre and Charlie Manuel decide to pitch each game will make the biggest difference in the outcome of this series. Because of the way the schedule is laid out, it is possible for both teams to go with short three-man rotations. This scenario would allow each staff ace (Derek Lowe for the Dodgers and Cole Hamels for the Phillies) to potentially make three starts during the seven game series. Each pitcher could start Game 1, pitch in Game 4 on three days rest, and then be available for the final game on regular rest. Billingsley and Kuroda would be the other two starters for L.A. while Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer would round out the rotation for Philadelphia. This is the scenario AccuScore has based these simulations putting each team’s best pitchers against one another. If each manager were to use a fourth starter the likely candidates are Clayton Kershaw and Joe Blanton. This match-up would favor the Dodgers because the Phillies (particularly Ryan Howard and Chase Utley) are more vulnerable against lefthanders, and Kershaw would be pitching at home. Blanton is very average, and he has a tendency to walk batters and give up home runs. Both weaknesses play into the hands of the Dodgers who hit four home runs in the NLDS and is a more patient lineup. Greg Maddux is another option for Torre to use as a fourth starter, and he too would be favored against Blanton. In each of the first four games the home team is solidly favored which means a split is the most likely scenario. The pivotal game in the series looks to be Game 5, the final game at Dodger Stadium. In this match-up AccuScore gives Billingsley a sizable edge over Myers with L.A. favored in 65 percent of simulations. The series would then shift to Philadelphia for Game 6 which is the only contest that the road team is projected as the favorite. Kuroda has the slight edge over Moyer in the match-up (53 percent) which could be a potential closeout game for the Dodgers. If the Phillies were to pull out the win in that game however, they would be the favorites in Game 7 with Hamels on the mound at home. AccuScore simulations project that if the Dodgers prevail, they would likely do it in six games. If the Phillies were to win, it will likely be in a full seven game series. There are several key areas to watch over the course of the NLCS. The Dodgers were able to completely shut down the Cubs allowing just six runs over three games. Chicago’s lineup was dominated by right-handed batters that had a tendency to strike out which L.A. exploited perfectly. Jonathan Broxton closed out Game 3 while Takashi Saito struggled in his outing in Game 2, and had to be replaced. Torre has said all along that Saito was his closer, but when the time came Broxton was the man. Expect Broxton to be one finishing games. Philadelphia has two monster left-handed bats in Howard and Utley. Hong-Chih Kuo is unlikely to be available for the Dodgers because of a sore elbow which would leave Kershaw and Joe Beimel as the only southpaws on the roster. Losing Kuo could be a major factor because of his dominance against lefties (.214 OBP against) while being equally effective against righties. Those two big bats for Philadelphia were actually mostly silent in the NLDS. Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Jimmy Rollins actually carried most of the offensive load. Those three will need to keep hitting to prevail over Los Angeles. The Dodgers have quietly built their own supporting cast around Manny. The most important addition has been that of Furcal who has upgraded the infield in a major way both offensively and defensively. The shortstop scored runs in each game against the Cubs and reached base seven times. His presence transforms the lineup creating far more scoring opportunities for Manny, Andre Ethier, and Russell Martin. Looking at this series from any angle, it appears that these teams are evenly matched. The bullpens ranked one and two in ERA this season, and the top starters have all performed well in recent weeks. Each lineup features balance and depth, and power from both sides of the plate. While the Dodgers are slightly favored, anything can happen in the playoffs and surprises seemingly always come to the fore. This should be an excellent entertaining series to watch.
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jonlee
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Jonathan Lee AccuScore Analyst
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@ Statsman: I don't see where it says that. |
Statsman
said:
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Check again, I think accuscore has the Phillies winning the series 53% to 47%. Your article has the results reversed. |
jonlee
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Yes, the Phillies have announced Joe Blanton will start Game 4. That would actually give the Dodgers a bigger edge in that game, but Hamels would not automatically make the Phillies a favorite in Game 5 against Billingsley. |
stuart
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the phillies will not pitch Hamels on 3 days rest. the simulation is wrong. figure split through 4 and Hamels winning game 5. Return to Philadelphia needing 1 out of 2 at home. |
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