Overall Outlook
The New York Mets bombed in the final month of last season, losing the NL East to the Philadelphia Phillies by one game. The majority of this free fall in the standings was due to poor starting pitching. To rectify this, the Mets went out and acquired the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana. Santana gives the Mets a boost this season in AccuScore simulations, giving them the close win in the division this season.

The Phillies won’t be far behind this season, finishing almost two games behind the Mets. The Phillies won their final eight games against the Mets, and dominated the season series with a 12-6 record. Johan Santana will be needed to try and tame the bats of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins.

Not lost in the hunt are the Atlanta Braves, who owned the NL East up until the last two seasons. The Braves have only a few pieces of their NL East dynasty remaining, but have several young additions who will at the least give them a shot at the Wild Card. The Nationals will open a new stadium this season, with the hopes that their new home field advantage will give them some sort of shot in the standings. Finally, the Marlins are fresh off trading Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and are projected to win just 60 games, although we’ve seen young Marlins teams surprise us many times.

New York Mets
The best part of the Mets’ addition of Johan Santana is that it cost the big league club nothing. Santana joins a strong rotation which also includes John Maine, Pedro Martinez, and Oliver Perez, who is in a contract year. The offense is just as dynamic, with stars such as David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado.

While the pitching looks solid, it proves to be a make or break factor for the Mets, as seen in last year’s collapse. Santana is a huge addition, but he only pitches once every five days, meaning the other starters will need to step up. Oliver Perez has been inconsistent throughout his career, but when he is on his game he is a very dominating pitcher. AccuScore projections have Perez posting a 4.38 ERA, but striking out 185 in 190 innings. Pedro Martinez comes with health issues, but even in a limited season he is winning 13 games in simulations.

In the end, the addition of Santana will be the deciding role if the rest of the starters carry their weight. The Mets lost the division by just one game last season, and upgrading to Santana every five days will definitely give them that extra game or two needed to make the playoffs. If Perez has a solid contract year, and Pedro is healthy late in the season, the Mets would be heavy favorites to represent the NL in the World Series.

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies will keep the division race close yet again thanks to their dynamic offense, and the return of Brett Myers to the rotation. Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley are among the best offensive producers at their positions. Geoff Jenkins joins the Phillies this year, platooning with Jayson Werth. Jenkins is horrible against left handers, so a platoon situation might be best for him. Shane Victorino is putting up a solid average, while Pat Burrell is topping 30 homers in simulations, making this offense one to rival the Mets.

The Phillies pitching gets a boost from Brett Myers, who struggled last year in a reliever role. Myers was dominant as a starter, striking out 397 batters in the 2005 and 2006 seasons. Aside from Myers and Cole Hamels, the Phillies have some question marks. Adam Eaton and Jamie Moyer were very unimpressive last season. Neither is showing much improvement in simulations for the season. Kyle Kendrick won 10 games as a rookie, but wasn’t very dominant, striking out just 49 batters in 121 innings, and is already seeing a set back in Spring Training.

The Phillies definitely have the offense to compete with the Mets, but they can’t win the division with just two reliable pitchers. A move will need to be made at some point during the season to bolster their pitching staff. Adam Eaton and Jamie Moyer will be allowing a lot of runs, which means the Phillies will need their offense to keep them in the hunt. Looking towards a minor league prospect like Carlos Carrasco, or making a deal for a starter during the season would give the Phillies their only shot at beating the Mets.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves had an impressive hold on the NL East for well over a decade, but the departure of many stars has left them with a new core. After the loss of Andruw Jones to the Dodgers, the Braves still have some pieces remaining in John Smoltz, Chipper Jones, and the recently re-acquired Tom Glavine. They will be joined by new stars Brian McCann, Mark Texieira, and Jeff Francoeur.

In the off-season the Braves sent Edgar Renteria to the Tigers in a deal that brought them pitching prospect Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens has a solid track record in the minors, and posted some decent numbers in a limited amount of innings with the Tigers last season. AccuScore projections have Jurrjens stepping up to win 15 games for the Braves, giving Atlanta a solid third starter behind Smoltz and Tim Hudson. Tom Glavine won’t be the pitcher he was when he left the Braves, but this time around he won’t be looked upon as the leader of the staff. Mike Hampton’s health is always a concern, but if he is able to play the majority of the season he can easily add 10 wins for Atlanta.

Mark Teixeira caught fire with the Braves after coming over from the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline last season. Teixeira batted .317 with 17 homers and 56 RBIs in 54 games with Atlanta. AccuScore projections have him putting up similar numbers over the whole season, which will give the Braves rotation plenty of run support. Jeff Francoeur is also on the verge of a breakout season, with a strong chance of hitting for a .300 average with 30 home runs. The bottom line is that while the Braves have fallen the past two seasons, they are still very much in the race for the NL East. Don’t count them out just yet.

Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals move in to a new ballpark this season, and will hope that the new scenery brings on some new success. The Nationals added a few high upside prospects in the off-season when they traded for Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge. Austin Kearns, Dmitri Young, and Ryan Zimmerman should benefit from moving out of the unfriendly RFK Stadium.

The Nationals lack an ace pitcher, and don’t really have anyone on their staff that stands out. Shawn Hill, John Lannan, Matt Chico, and Jason Bergmann are all 26 or younger, and will get their chance to start this season. None of these pitchers have a career ERA below 4.00, but AccuScore simulations give Hill the best shot at having a breakout season.

Washington should put up a decent performance this season, but are no where near the level of the Mets, Phillies, and Braves. Look for the Nationals to improve on their offense, while hoping one of their young pitchers stands apart from the crowd. If the Nationals can emerge from this season with a clear cut ace, and Dukes or Milledge realize their potential, then this season can be considered a success.

Florida Marlins
Being a Florida Marlins fan must be an interesting rollercoaster ride. On one hand your team has won two World Series titles in their short 14 year existence as a franchise. On the other hand, it is a guarantee that if a star emerges in a Marlins uniform, he will be traded. The Marlins dealt Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis this off-season in their ever continuing rebuilding process. In return the Marlins received the two best prospects in the Detroit farm system, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller.

Maybin will start the season in AAA, but will definitely be seen at some point this season. The 20 year old center fielder had a brief call up with Detroit last season, posting a .143 average in 49 at bats, but showed great speed with five stolen bases. The Marlins will look to fill the third base hole that Cabrera left with cast off prospects Jorge Cantu and Dallas McPherson. Cantu will get the first shot at the job with McPherson starting the season in the minors. Cantu batted .286 with 28 homers in 2005, and would be a huge bargain for Florida if he reverts to those numbers once again.

Andrew Miller looks to replace Willis as the ace of the Marlins staff. Miller wasn’t overly impressive with the Tigers over the last two years, posting a 5.69 ERA. Miller should see improvement moving to the weaker hitting National League, and is only 22 years old, which means his best years are still ahead of him. The Marlins have plenty of young talented pitchers such as Scott Olsen and Sergio Mitre. Their offense might have lost one of the best young players in the game, but returns Hanley Ramirez and Jeremy Hermida. Don’t be surprised if the Marlins come from out of no where once again and exceed everyone’s expectations, including ours above.