| MLB Waiver Wire Wonders |
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I’ve never left a movie early. No matter how bad the movie is. Whether it’s Date Movie, which was the worst movie I’ve seen in my life, or a movie like Basic, which is kind of slow all through the movie, but has a great ending. I have a hard time spending $20 and an hour of my time, only to bail on the final 45 minutes, rather than seeing if the movie redeems it’s self. For some baseball players, the baseball season can be like a bad movie. They always start off slow, and plenty of people cut and run. Not me. I’m in it for the long haul. You invested in a guy like Paul Konerko or Brett Myers in the draft. You know there could be some upside. So why don’t you stick around for the remainder of the season? The reason you don’t is because fantasy baseball is different from a movie. You can drop a poor performer in fantasy baseball and pick up someone who is performing on the waiver wire. You can’t leave a bad movie and pick up in the second half with a good movie. Many fantasy baseball owners have cut and run on some of their poor performers. With the All-Star break just passing, it is time to re-evaluate these poor performers. For some reason the All-Star break is a magical time where players turn things around, for whatever reason, and pull an ending just like the movie Basic with John Travolta and Samuel L Jackson. This week’s Waiver Wire Wonders focuses on guys who have probably been cut loose in your league, but who have a history of turning it around in the second half. Batters Rickie Weeks – Weeks would be a stud second baseman if he could get his average under control. This marks the second year in a row that Weeks has finished the first half with an average around .220. Last year Weeks saw an increase in average after the break, hitting .251 with 11 homers and 16 steals. Paul Konerko – Konerko has hit a total of 47 homers in the last three years after the All-Star break, with a .297 average. He’s struggled with injuries and poor production in the first half, but he’s worth a flier in the second half if you need some power. Adam LaRoche – In the last month LaRoche is batting .350 with four homers and 17 RBIs. This is no surprise, as LaRoche has hit over .310 after the break the last two years, with a total of 27 homers. I like him better than Konerko, just because you’re likely to get a better average, you won’t see a huge drop in power, and LaRoche has already shown signs of breaking out of his slump. Hank Blalock – Blalock is expected to return from his latest injury tonight. He hit .313 with five homers in 64 at bats after returning from injury last season. There’s no questioning his talent, but his injuries prohibit him from being a fantasy stud. Still, he’s worth a waiver wire add to milk his production while he’s healthy. Frank Thomas – Thomas is expected to return from his injury at the end of July. Last year Thomas hit ten homers with a .325 average. In 2006 he hit for a .302 average with 16 homers in the final two months. Thomas was hitting .353 with four homers in the month of May before getting hurt. Hop back on the bandwagon once he gets healthy again. Garret Anderson – Anderson hit .285 before the break last year with just three homers. After the break he hit .305 with 13 homers. In 2006 he hit .261 with seven homers before the break, and .302 with ten homers after the break. It could be that the 36 year old outfielder just needs a lot of time to get his swing in to the groove, but there’s no questioning he is a solid guy to have on your team from this point forward. Austin Kearns – Kearns hit .250 with five homers before the break last year, and .285 with 11 homers after the break. He’s hitting a measly .205 with four homers, but he’s hitting .286 over the last month, showing that he may be coming out of his slump. Pitchers Bronson Arroyo – Arroyo’s ERA after the break the past two years has been around 3.50 with over 80 strikeouts each season. Arroyo’s 5.97 ERA this season has been horrible, but he’s still managed 93 strikeouts and seven wins. He’s a great buy low on the waiver wire if he can turn the ERA around again in the second half. Francisco Liriano – In shallow leagues Liriano is a potential stud to add. He’s dominating AAA hitting with a 5-0 record, a 0.50 ERA, and a 40:3 K:BB ratio in his last five starts. He should be up by now, but for whatever reason, the Twins are holding him back. It’s gotten so bad that Liriano’s agent is filing a grievance with the player’s union to try and get him up to the majors. As an owner of Liriano, I’d like to join in on that grievance. Brett Myers – Myers just got the call for the Phillies after a short demotion to AAA. Myers has probably been let go in most leagues, but is worth a gamble if you are in need of pitching. Best case scenario he turns in to an ace. Worst case scenario he continues to bomb, and doesn’t really hurt you since you’re most likely already bad off in the pitching department if you’re taking a risk on him. Joe Blanton – The Phillies just dealt for Blanton, who hasn’t been that impressive this year. The reason the Phillies paid to bring him in is because of his potential. There’s no questioning that Blanton has what it takes to be a solid pitcher. Maybe a move to the National league will be the spark he needs to turn this season around. Dave Bush – Bush has been putting it together recently with a 1.75 ERA, three wins, and 28 strikeouts in 36 innings over the last month. He’s always been a fantasy enigma, but has never been able to put things together over a long stretch. With the way the Brewers are playing this year, and the way Bush has been playing lately, he’s worth a shot to see if he can finally maintain this pace. Jeff Francis – He should be returning from the DL soon, and can be productive for your team when he does. Last year Francis went 9-4 with 85 strikeouts in 99 innings after the break. In 2006 he went 7-4 after the break. He’s worth an add in the second half if you need wins and strikeouts. Chris Carpenter – Carpenter is set to return in early August, and is worth a risk. He’s a big risk, as he has only pitched six innings since the end of the 2006 season. However, he is worth a risk to see if he’s returned to give any resemblance of the 15-8, 3.09 ERA pitcher he was in 2006. Trackback(0)
Comments (25)
twilliams
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Halladay, I don't know why you would have to include Manny if you're trading Johan for Holliday. And if you do have to include Manny, I'd want something else back in return, since the difference between Holliday and Johan is slim. |
twilliams
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Smoking Gun, In the trade, I like the Kazmir side, assuming you need pitching help. You might be able to get someone else back in the deal, since that person will have to drop someone anyways. As for Bay/Atkins, I generally go for positional scarcity, so Atkins would be my pick. This is assuming you don't have another third baseman, and assuming you don't start five outfielders. In either of those cases I like Bay better. |
twilliams
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Pujols, To answer your first question, with the recent trade of Rauch, the best bets for saves are Street (short term) or Torres/Gregg (Long Term). There's the possibility Street gets traded, so I would go with Torres/Gregg, although it looks like there's no urgency to snap up closers. As for the second question, I'd do McLouth/Sheets for Holliday. In a shallow league all that matters is who got the best player, and filling your starting lineup needs. Sheets carries an injury history, and you're pretty set with pitching. Holliday is a clear upgrade over McLouth. |
halladay511
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hey tim, need some help...johan and manny for holliday? what do you think? |
Kick Their Pujols
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TIM!!!!!!!!! Need BIG help on a trade. I'm giving away Nate Mclouth and Ben Sheets and receiving Matt Holliday. Its a non keeper league and my outfielders are ryan braun, carlos lee, and vlad guerrero and utility is either aubry huff or curtis granderson. My starters are felix hernandez, cc sabathia, ben sheets, roy holladay, eric bedard (d.l.), jake peavy, and john danks. of course ben sheets would be gone if i traded. One do you think this is a good and productive trade for me, and two do you think it would be better if i gave felix hernandez, or no one instead? Thanks! |
smoking gun
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one more question tim. in a non keeper league, would you rather have jason bay or garrett atkins? |
smoking gun
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hi tim. what do you think of this trade -> scott kazmir for nate mclouth and granderson. the team with kazmir needs some rbis and runs. thanks |
Kick Their Pujols
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Hi Tim, I have an open roster spot and i wanna fill it with a productive player and not really a waiver wire pickup. I have a lotta confidence in my batting and my batting is doing real well, so i wanna fill it with a picther spot. my starting pitchers are felix hernandez, cc sabathia, ben sheets, roy holladay, eric bedard (d.l.), jake peavy, and john danks. my relief pitchers are brad lidge, joe nathan, and fransico cordero. I dont think i need a starter more than a relief guy or vice versa, so im just looking for the best pitcher to get me the most points. I asked you previously for starting pitching help, and i signed danks, but i dont like tim hudson. Burnett, Cain, and Gavin Floyd are unconsistant and confusing, so im gonna ask for relief help. Who's best...J. Rauch, K. Gregg, H. Street, Balfour, S. Torres, B. Fuentes, B. Wilson, or Todd Jones. It's a lotta people again, sorry, Thanks a lot! |
Kick Their Pujols
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To Jon Lee...its a non keeper 6 team league ...one of every position, 3 outfielders, and one utility. 21 player roster. my outfield is pretty good with carlos lee, mclouth, vladdy, curtis granderson, ryan braun, and jason bay. |
jonlee
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what kind of league has ichiro, abreu, and rios on the waiver wire?! a 3-team league? |
Kick Their Pujols
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Hi, Tim. I'm in the same league as John Rambo and im offering him an amazing deal that satisfies both parties. See if you cant try to talk some sense into him, unless im wrong that is. Ok, i have great outfield help and he needs outfield help. and he just completed the trade where he gave matt holliday for linsecum and becket and ramariaz. his pitching is pretty much stacked now with linsecum, becket, dan haren, rich harden, johan santana, scott kazmir, ervin santana, and john lackey...thats a lotta good pitchers and i think he can afford to trade one away for his outfielder need. So, my trade was scott kazmir for any two of these three outfielders...jason bay, nate mclouth, and curtis granderson. its a non keeper league as well... so its scott kazmir for 2 of these 3 (jason bay, mclouth, granderson) a good trade for both parties? |
johnrambo
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hey tim, thanks for the help on the trade. who should i pick up from the free agents pool: alex rios, abreu, or ichiro. if you need to know where i stand in statistics in my league, i guess i could use help in RBIs and runs. |
twilliams
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Kick Their Pujols...heh. Right away Danks sticks out to me, just because I've got him on the majority of my teams, including my dynasty team where I consider him untouchable. AccuScore projects he will have seven wins, a 2.81 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP with 64 Ks in 80 innings over the remainder of the season. Two others I like are Cain and Hudson. Cain has trouble with consistency, but no one on this list has more potential than he does, and no one is better when they are on their game than him. Hudson is a solid pitcher if you don't need the strikeouts. AccuScore projections have Danks and Cain striking out more guys, with Hudson providing seven wins, a 3.16 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. I don't like Floyd, and AccuScore agrees, projecting him with a 4.00 ERA for the remainder of the season. Burnett is too inconsistent for my tastes, and there's always the question of injury. If you don't need strikeouts, Hudson is your best bet. If you want the total package, then Danks is your guy. My list is: 1. Danks 2. Hudson 3. Cain 4. Floyd 5. Burnett |
twilliams
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Rambo, That definitely is a great return for Holliday, even if he's putting up first round numbers. AccuScore has Holliday hitting .339 with 13 homers and 8 steals over the remainder of the season. That seems reasonable. Manny is hitting 11 homers, but has a .261 average in AccuScore forecasts. I'd have to disagree with the computer there, since Manny has hit no lower than .306 after the All-Star break the last three seasons. You're looking at about a 30 point drop in average, and in return, you're getting two aces. AccuScore forecasts have Lincecum/Beckett combining for 13 wins, 174 Ks, a 3.07 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 173 combined innings. Run with this deal. |
Kick Their Pujols
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Hi, Tim, eric bedards on the dl so who from here do you think is the best pickup in a non keeper league? Could you kidna rank them best to worst? and this pickup i would like to keep for a while not just one day. Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, or A.J. Burnett? Sorry i know its a lot of people. Thanks a lot! |
johnrambo
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yeah, youre correct, you probably couldnt answer those quesetions like that, but i hope you can answer this one. should i trade matt holliday for lincecum beckett and manny ramirez? it seems like im getting a lot of value for one guy. i can get david ortiz instead of ramirez also, but i want an outfielder. thanks |
twilliams
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Are you saying that Ethier, Rios, Ichiro, and Abreu are free agents? Or are you suggesting trading for them rather than going for a free agent? I really couldn't answer your question unless I knew the league size, roster sizes, and available free agents, plus your needs (steals, homers, average, etc.) |
johnrambo
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Hi tim, im in need of an outfielder that can play a good role on the bench. ive been thinking about picking up alex rios, ethier, abreu, or ichiro, there is too much parity among the outfielders in the free agents pool in my league. are there any hidden gems that i should pick up? thanks in advance. |
twilliams
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If you're trading Pujols for Berkman, I'd re-consider. While I'm not saying Berkman has been a fluke this season, I will say that his average has been out of control. It's mainly the product of an amazing month of May where he hit .471. In April he hit .303 and in June he hit .319. In the last three years Berkman has hit .304 in the final three months of the season. I expect his average for the remainder of this year to be in the .310 to .320 range. As for his other numbers, they're all legit. He has averaged 21 homers, 53 runs, and 58 RBIs in the final three months the last three years. Those are solid numbers, but you're really just making a lateral move by swapping him out with Pujols, and probably a bit of a downgrade. Over the same time span Pujols has averaged 20 homers, 61 runs, and 59 RBIs. The kicker is the average that Pujols will give you. In the final three months of the last three years Pujols has hit .349, .349, and .321. Bottom line is that they've both been playing well this season, and they both will continue to play well. However, if you want the best bet for the guy who will end up with the better average, it's Pujols. There's a reason Berkman's .347 average this season is getting way more hype than the .346 average of Pujols: It's expected out of Pujols. Add in the fact that they've both hit a homer about once every 14.5 at bats this season, and there's no reason to be looking for an upgrade over Pujols. Plus, I just love saying Pujols out loud, which is why my team name is called "Kick Their Pujols". |
FND
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btw, i was bestdrive also, i dont know why i made two different names...but anyway you saved me big time on the braun trade and unfotuanatly i had confidence in escobar, but at least im up to date now thanks to you...i have another question, theres a possible trade in the works, lance berman for albert pujols...i put lance berkman at first baseman so theres not a position problem. give me those beast stats you find and help me out again pls! |
twilliams
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FND, The latest updates on Escobar (which happen to be today) are saying that there is a possibility that he may need surgery, which will put him out for 12 months. Even if he can avoid surgery, I don't see him coming back until late in the year, and only in a reserve role. Feel free to drop him from your DL if you need the spot for other players. I've done so as of three weeks ago. |
twilliams
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BestDrive, Braun has to be outfield eligible by now in your league. What do you hate about him that would make you trade Sheets for an upgrade from Braun to Holliday? So far Braun has hit .310 in the majors with a home run every 14.62 at bats and the potential to steal 15 bases a year. The only difference between Holliday and Braun is the increase in average, which is big this year after Braun's .248 in June. The question you have to ask is, do you want to trade Ben Sheets for a boost in average? Holliday will definitely help you win the batting average category, but Braun won't do anything to help you lose it. |
FND
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hey any updates on Kelvin Escobar?...how do you think he'll do? |
BestDrive
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Hi Tim. I was wondering if you think that this would be a good trade for me. I'm giving away Ryan Braun and Ben Sheets for Matt Holliday. My other third baseman is Miguel Cabrera and i think he'll bounce back. My other pitchers are C.C. Sabathia, Jake Peavy, Eric Bedard, Roy Holliday, Felix Hernandez, and Ricky Nolasco as a waiver wire pickup. My other out fielders are good but putting someone as dominant as Holliday would be great. Do you think this is a good trade for me? |
PW
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If it's cooked already and comes in a bag, you don't tip, no matter how the bag gets to you. |
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