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Last week I wrote about my attempts to trade Rick Ankiel in return for pitching. My goal was to trade for Rich Harden and Ricky Nolasco, giving my team the boost in wins and strikeouts that I felt were needed to win the league. The talks between myself and the other manager went back and forth for a few days, until finally we hit a wall. I wanted Harden and Nolasco for Ankiel and Chase Headley. I felt that Headley, a guy who had hit six homers in 93 at bats, was a fair price for Nolasco, and we both agreed that Ankiel for Harden was fair. The problem was that he didn’t want to give up Nolasco, and would only trade Seth McClung and Austin Kearns for Headley. Last week I talked about how sometimes, in order to make a deal, one party has to cave in and take a solid return, rather than pushing for the best deal possible. Let’s just say I didn’t follow my own advice. Following the talks stalling for Harden/Nolasco, I proceeded to send out trade offers to the rest of the league. For my pair of Ankiel and Headley, I asked for the following pitching duos: Cole Hamels/Hiroki Kuroda Jake Peavy/Oliver Perez John Maine/Derek Lowe Carlos Zambrano/Johnny Cueto CC Sabathia/Pedro Martinez Brandon Webb/Paul Maholm Chad Billingsley/Ted Lilly The structure of all of these deals was basically the same. I was asking for a top pitcher for Ankiel, and a guy who is not a top pitcher, but who can put up top pitcher numbers, for Headley. This was a win/win approach, because I knew if none of these deals were accepted, I could make a deal for Harden, and take someone less than Nolasco. That wasn’t necessary. All of the owners rejected my trade offer, except for the owner of Billingsley and Lilly, which was my favorite combo. That specific owner had solid pitching numbers on the season, and has Chris Young returning soon. His problem is that his offense is weak. My offense leads every category, but I am low on the rankings in wins and strikeouts. This is a deal that worked out for both of us. He gets two solid offensive players, and I get the wins and strikeouts I needed. As for Lilly and Billingsley, AccuScore projects that they will combine for 11 wins and 135 strikeouts over the remainder of the season. Those numbers would give me an additional five points in the standings in just wins and strikeouts, which at the moment would be enough to win the league by three points. My offense remains loaded without Ankiel and Headley, but I have Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman returning this week, making my loss that much easier to take. The problem I am now left with is that I am short on outfielders. I can survive with Fernando Tatis and Matt Diaz in my lineup, but this means I have to bench a guy like Zimmerman, Ryan Theriot, or Adam LaRoche, three guys who I like more than Tatis and Diaz. This leads me to another trade situation, this time dealing the recently rehabbed Tulowitzki or Zimmerman for an outfielder to replace my guys, and possibly another low key pitcher who can provide additional numbers in the wins and strikeouts categories. I guess the work is never done for a guy who trades as much as I do. Deals of the Week Along with the Ankiel/Headley for Billingsley/Lilly swap, I was pretty active this past week, making a few more moves. In my dynasty league I traded Matt Garza and Greg Smith for Jeremy Guthrie and Rich Hill. I am in a position to win this year, but I was willing to take a risk on Hill’s future, since good pitching is a premium in this league. I like Garza a little more than Guthrie just because the Rays will provide more run support than the Orioles, but I can’t say that either guy blows my socks off. My hope is that I can deal Guthrie for a young pitcher who has the potential to be an ace, and will put up solid numbers this season. I also made my annual deal in my family league with my uncle Paul. It seems like every season, in every sport, we make at least one trade. In this deal I sent Joakim Soria for Scott Kazmir. His team is top three in every pitching category, thanks to a staff that includes Tim Lincecum, Scott Kazmir, CC Sabathia, Ricky Nolasco, and Cliff Lee. My team is leading in saves, thanks to lower round picks like Soria, Brad Lidge, Troy Percival, and waiver wire guys like Salomon Torres and Brandon Morrow. I currently have a 17 save lead over the second place team in that category, and I am tied for ninth place in wins, and 82 strikeouts away from moving up a point in that category. I’m taking the risk that the loss of Soria, combined with the return of Percival, won’t hurt me in saves, and the addition of Kazmir will help me close the strikeout gap, and give me a few points in the wins department, allowing me to move up to first and win the league for the second year in a row. Of course I have to pass my uncle to get in first place, so hopefully my additional points in the wins category will trump his additional points in the saves category. Trackback(0)
Comments (27)
twilliams
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Justin, Last year in the final three months, Teixeira hit .310 with 18 homers and 64 RBIs. Howard had a monster finish, with a .280 average, 28 homers, and 79 RBIs. The question you have to ask is, was that a fluke by Howard? He hit 19 homers in the first three months, only to take off in the second half. Looking at the 2006 numbers, Howard hit an amazing 31 homers and 80 RBIs in the final three months of the season, and hit for a .340 average over that stretch. That year he hit 27 homers in the first three months. There's something about Howard, most likely the warmer weather, that makes him heat up (no pun intended) in the final three months of the season. Howard's average should come around again in the second half, and he won't cost you too much from Teixeira. However, you're adding a lot of homers and RBIs by going with Howard over Teixeira. My guess is that Howard will get you at least 10 more homers and 15-20 more RBIs, with a 20 point drop in batting average from Teixeira. |
Justin
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Tim, I've been recieving trade offers that would give me Ryan Howard for Mark Teixeira. Tex has been a little disappointing this season but I know he is a second half hitter. Likewise Howard's average is equally disappointing but his other numbers are great. I guess what I'm asking is who as more upside and overall value? In my H2H league, I'm middle of the road for avg, top 3 in rbi, and bottom 3 in hr. |
tyson
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will mark teixeira get traded? and who would they get |
twilliams
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Braun is by far the best player in that deal. If you've got the offer, I would take it. In the last two years Braun has hit a homer once every 14.42 at bats. To put that in perspective, A-Rod has averaged a homer once every 14.22 at bats in his career. Braun's slow start to the season may have raised questions with some people, but he has come on strong with 17 homers in the last two months. Braun and a waiver wire outfielder would be far more valuable than Beltran and Bradley. |
Somesh Patel Singh
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New bestfriend faraz? lol |
yourintheclub101
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milton bradley and carlos beltran for ryan braun? |
yourintheclub101
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tim...youre a life saver!!  |
twilliams
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I think that if you're getting trade offers like Teixeira for Pedroia, you don't need my help. You absolutely have to take Teixeira. Even with Lee and Morneau on the roster, that value is too much to pass up. I don't know what positions you start, but I assume you can't start all three (unless you have 1B, corner IF, and UTIL spots.) As for Teixeira, in the last three years he's averaged the following stat line from July until the end of the season: .302, 50 runs, 21 HR, 70 RBIs Teixeira looks like he's heating up early, with 5 homers and a .300 average in the last two weeks. If you wanted, you could get a top closer for one of these guys, or what I would do (assuming your league is not head to head) is wait until the next closer becomes available. With two closers, you're not in desperate need to pass up on this much value for a third guy. Even if this is a H2H league you don't benefit much by locking up that one category. You would be better served trading one of those first basemen for a solid starting pitcher, who could help you in four categories, rather than just the saves category. |
yourintheclub101
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im in a prediciment tim. part of my roster consists of these players : chase utley, derek lee, justin morneau, dustin pedroia, george sherrill, carlos marmol, and troy percival. (deep breath) ok, now one of the people in my league is looking for a second baseman, and he would like pedroia. he is willing to give me either bobby jenks or mark texieria. i dont know if i should run off with the better player (texieria) or get the player who plays a position i think i need help in (relievers). if i did decide to take texieria, i could trade one of my first basemen for a bigger named reliever. anyway, thanks in advance and sorry for the long message. |
twilliams
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No problem. Thanks for reading and good luck with your team this year. |
yourintheclub101
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thanks tim, you have some great advice. |
twilliams
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First of all, excellent trade, dealing Lee away for Santana. I think Lee is a good pitcher, but no where near the level of Johan. As for Santana, hold on to him by all means. From 2005 to 2007, Johan has put up a combined 2.97 ERA a 1.04 WHIP, and a strikeout per inning from July until the end of the season. I have a feeling you wouldn't be asking this question if Johan was 10-3 right now. Wins are largely a team stat, and Johan's ratios indicate that the Mets are letting him down in that category. AccuScore forecasts have Johan winning nine games with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, striking out 110 in 111 innings over the remainder of the season. The only guy I'd even consider Johan for is Peavy, but even with the Mets' troubles, I like their run support over the Padres. |
yourintheclub101
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i have another question...johan santana. i recieved him from an earlier trade this year by giving away cliff lee, believing that lee couldn't keep up his stellar start. santana has dissapointed me, but im hoping that the mets turn around along with santana. should i look to deal him to get a pitcher like sabathia, peavy, hamels, or sheets, or should i just stick to johan and hope he turns around? |
yourintheclub101
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thanks tim |
twilliams
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In the last month Bradley has 7 homers and a .333 average, however, I have a feeling your concerns are over his .238 average with one homer since his recent quad injury. In that time Bradley hasn't received much playing time, mostly due to interleague play. As long as he's with the Rangers, you've got to keep Bradley. He has 12 homers and a .390 average at home this year. It should also be of note that 12 of 15 games during the previously mentioned injured stretch have been on the road. I think two things will help Bradley see a turnaround: the return of the DH-option for Texas, and the return to Arlington. Stick with him through this rough stretch. |
yourintheclub101
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hi tim, simple question, should i keep milton bradley? |
twilliams
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As for your second basemen situation, it really depends on what your needs are. Ellis gives you a little more power than the rest of the group, but a lower average. Polanco provides a high average, but not a lot of power. Lopez is Ellis with a drop in power. I think your best bet is to stick with Hudson. The grass always looks greener on the other side, but Hudson is your best bet because he's the only guy who is a total package in this scenario. AccuScore projects Hudson to go .304, 41 runs, 7 HR, 47 RBI, and 4 SB for the remainder of the season. You may get 2-3 more homers from Ellis, but the average will be 30 points lower. You may get a 20 point increase in average from Polanco, but you'll lose 2-3 homers. I'd rank them: 1. Hudson 2. Polanco 3. Ellis 4. Lopez |
twilliams
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I was never a believer in Burrell when he had his .364 average at the start of the year. He's a career .259 hitter, and hasn't hit above .258 the past two years. With that being said, I'm not completely sold that he's a fluke at his current pace, and might still have some value from this point on. In the last three years, Burrell has averaged the following numbers from July until the end of the season: .279 average, 47 runs, 16 HR, 54 RBI Current AccuScore simulations are projecting this for Burrell from now until the end of the season: .271 average, 46 runs, 18 HR, 55 RBI I think he will finish with the following: .270 average, 46 runs, 16 HR, 55 RBI Kind of a combination of the two. Burrell's three year average was inflated by a .300 performance last year, but he won't match that again. Still, the power is legit, and if you can withstand the average, he's a guy to hold on to. |
CouldntDoItWithoutMe
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oh yeah another second baseman im considering is javy lopez from the mariners in addition to polanco and ellis, thanks! |
CouldntDoItWithoutMe
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Hey Tim, i got a couple questions. I have Pat Burrell and im really unsure about him. last couple weeks he's been really unconsistant. What do you think about Pat? And i'm also kinda having a 2nd base problem. I have Orlando Hudson, and i kinda have some faith in him, but i've been recently thinking of dropping him and either picking up Placido Polanco of the Tigers or Mark Ellis, i'm leaning more towards Placido. Thanks again, you give a lot more convincing advise than a lot of other people. |
CouldntDoItWithoutMe
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Thanks for the help Tim!!!!  |
twilliams
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McLouth has been receiving regular playing time since August of last season. Since that point he has received 464 at bats, and in those at bats he has hit for a .289 average with 94 runs, 25 homers, 78 RBIs, and 25 steals. Simply put, McLouth is not a fluke. That being said, you aren't going to get any kind of upgrade going with one over the other in this trade. AccuScore has McLouth batting .280 with 15 homers and 14 steals over the remainder of the season. Beltran is batting .286 with 15 homers and 12 steals. If this is a keeper league, I would stick with McLouth. If this is a single year league, Beltran may hold slightly more value simply because of the uncertainty that surrounds McLouth, and the name value that comes from Beltran. I actually made this swap earlier in the year in a single year league, mainly due to the extra trade value Beltran's name value gives him. However, I have McLouth in a few keeper leagues and it would take more than Beltran for me to part with him there. |
CouldntDoItWithoutMe
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Hi Tim, I was hoping you could help me out with a trade. I would be trading away Nate Mclouth of the Pirates and be recieving Carlos Beltran. I know this is Nate's first season putting up these stats, and Beltran has more successfull seasons under his belt than Nate. But Nate's stuff could be for real too, he doesnt HAVE to cool down, you know what I mean? If you could help me out with it it'd be great! |
twilliams
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Actually, at the time of the trade, all of the news was that Furcal would be back June 17th. When this article was written, Furcal was expected to be back June 17th. It was only one day after this article was published that it was announced Furcal had a set-back and would be out for a much longer amount of time. Thus, your reasoning on the Beckett/Furcal swap would be true now, but was not true at the time of the veto, or of the time of this writing. Therefore, with the knowledge that it would be Beckett for a Furcal that would be returning soon, I stand correct in saying that this deal should have never been vetoed. I agree, if it was Beckett for a Furcal that was returning in a month, it is worth a veto, but that's not the case. By your logic I can look back and say that an Alfonso Soriano for Dan Uggla trade made last week should have been vetoed because it was found out a week after the trade that Soriano suffered an injury and would miss six weeks. |
xeifrank
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Furcal is not coming back next week. You are way way way off on that one. Furcal is expected back in a best case scenario by the all-star break, but it I wouldn't hold out hope for the best case scenario on this injury. I would most likely veto this trade too. Beckett is worth more than a very injured Rafael Furcal. That's it right there, there should be no reason to look at the other possible veto explanations. What you need to do is offer more than Furcal. Instead of complaining about the veto process, why not sweeten the deal a little bit. If I am the 2nd, 3rd or 4th place team, I don't want to see the first place team get better by an uneven trade. In fact, when you are in first place, you should expect other teams to veto your trade. It comes with the territory. As an owner who works hard in the draft, studying players, looking for value and building a balanced team that is solid in all categories, I want the other owners punished for failing to draft enough starting pitching, relief pitching or players who can steal bases. If they are then able to make lopsided trades later in the season to fill these holes, it lessens all the work I did in the draft. I am always suspicious of trades, especially when it involves the first or second place team. You are the first place team, and your trade is not fair, thus the veto. Live with it, or sweeten the deal. vr, Xeifrank |
twilliams
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I would say that I am an insane loser who checks when starting pitchers are going, although I'm not sure if I qualify since I get paid for it. Besides, who doesn't check to see when their starters are going? Either you don't play fantasy baseball, or you are the guy who drafts his team, then checks back in August to see how things are going. Your comment would make sense if I was saying that it makes sense because the two players were providing the same amount of production as Wang...does that make sense? It wouldn't be beneficial to get similar production from two roster spots, rather than one. however, I project I will be adding an additional 10 wins and 150 Ks, which is better than I could find on the waiver wire in this particular league. So to recap, I traded Wang, and in return I got Wang's numbers, plus 10 wins and 150 Ks. I think that is worthy of an extra roster spot. |
bgold1212
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You end up with 150 more strike outs from the combo. Too bad its a combo and they take up 2 roster spots. Or else your reasoning would make sense. It's not like your going to leave a spot blank when you have Wang. Unless you are an insane loser who checks when starting pitchers are going to start and adjusts his roster to that. |
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