Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The Mets lost four of their last seven games, including splitting a four game series with the Washington Nationals.  Meanwhile, the Phillies are on a seven game winning streak, taking four from the Brewers and three from the Braves, and putting Philadelphia a half a game ahead of the Mets in the NL East race.  Philadelphia has a 79 percent chance of winning the division in AccuScore simulations, which is an increase of 50 percent since this time last week when they were three games back.

New York is hurt by a four game series with the Cubs next week.  Early AccuScore projections have the Cubs winning three of those four games, with the Mets only winning Johan Santana’s start in a little over 50 percent of simulations.  Philadelphia hopes to carry their hot streak to the end of the season, playing their final nine games against the Marlins, Braves, and Nationals.

With the Phillies currently the front runners for the NL East, and likely to win the division according to AccuScore simulations, the Mets may have to settle for the Wild Card.  New York currently has a one and a half game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card race, but the Brewers have the edge in AccuScore simulations.  This is in large part to the four game series against the Cubs next week, which comes at the same time as a three game series for the Brewers against the Pirates.  AccuScore projects the Brewers to sweep that series, which could put them back on top in the Wild Card standings.

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