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LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS BOSTON RED SOX

The Angels are solid favorites at home and are nearly splitting simulations in Boston in Game 3 and 4. They are a solid 63 percent favorite to beat the defending champion Boston Red Sox. The Angels have played the consistent baseball all season, which led them to the best record in baseball, and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Los Angeles of Anaheim has also been an excellent road team finishing with the same record as at home (50-31). This factor is an important reason why this series may end in Boston.

Red Sox ace Josh Beckett injured an oblique during a bullpen session, and as a result will be pushed back to Game 3 likely preventing him from starting two of the possible five games. Instead Jon Lester will oppose the Angels’ John Lackey in Game 1. This change has to be a concern for Boston given that Beckett is the one pitcher that gives them an advantage in simulations.

Many seem to believe that because the Red Sox swept the Angels in the ALDS last postseason that gives them some sort of edge this season. That would ignore the fact that the makeup of both teams has changed significantly since then, and that Los Angeles holds an 8-1 record against Boston including a sweep at Fenway this season.

The Angels are a much more complete team than they have been at any point during their recent run of success this decade. The acquisitions of Torii Hunter and Mark Teixeira have added some much needed depth and power to the overall lineup. Eric Aybar and Howie Kendrick have handled their first full seasons as starters in the middle of the infield capably despite dealing with some injury problems. Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and another off-season acquisition Jon Garland allowed the rotation to weather the loss of Kelvim Escobar and a prolonged absence by ace Lackey. The emergence of rookie Jose Arredondo has given the team another power arm out of the bullpen to pair with Scott Shields in front of record-setting closer Francisco Rodriguez.

The Red Sox meanwhile have fought through some turmoil to reach the postseason for the fifth time in six seasons. They have received contributions from every possible player on the roster including second baseman Dustin Pedroia who transformed himself into a legitimate MVP candidate. The loss of Manny Ramirez will be felt more in the postseason because, despite the solid play from Jason Bay, it leaves David Ortiz as the one true power bat in the middle of the lineup. J.D. Drew is dealing with a bad back that has limited him down the stretch, and third baseman Mike Lowell has had just one at-bat since September 16. The loss of either player would greatly diminish the overall depth and strength of the lineup. The bullpen is also an issue with closer Jonathan Papelbon being the one truly reliable arm available to Terry Francona. Rookie Justin Masterson is likely to find himself in a crucial late-inning spot at some point during this five game series.

All season long, the Angels have performed consistently and proven themselves as the best team in baseball. They enter the postseason as favorites, and that bears out in the simulations. Boston’s experience makes them dangerous, but Los Angeles is the more complete team and has far fewer injury-related concerns. AccuScore expects the Angels to move on to the ALCS with this series possibly not even reaching a Game 5 back in Anaheim.

CHICAGO CUBS VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS

The Cubs have been the class of the National League all season and they are favored to win the series thanks to home-field advantage, but this looks to be a fairly close series. The biggest edge the Cubs have is 66% in Game 2 with Carlos Zambrano projected to start. Zambrano however has pitched very poorly of late allowing 13 runs in his last two starts. If he does not find the form that allowed him to throw a no-hitter a few weeks ago then this series could change very quickly.

This series will likely come down to pitching, and while Chicago has the edge in the rotation the Dodgers have a superior middle relief corps. While that advantage is small in the big picture, it could come into play should L.A. be able to knock out one of Chicago’s starters early in a contest.

The Dodgers are an interesting case to look at because they are in such a state of flux which is unusual for a division winner heading into the postseason. The acquisition of Manny Ramirez has energized the entire lineup (and the entire city for that matter) improving the recent performances of players like Russell Martin and Andre Ethier significantly. Besides the obvious effect of Manny however is the unknown surrounding the Dodger infield. Jeff Kent was thought to be lost for the season, but he has returned and will likely be able to pinch-hit and possibly play some at first base. He provides another experienced bat off the bench. Shortstop Rafael Furcal has also returned from back surgery, and he started three of the final four games of the season. He could possibly play a super-utility role or even return to the lineup at shortstop. His average performance is significantly stronger than current shortstop Angel Berroa, but his questionable health makes his performance virtually impossible to predict.

The Cubs have the best lineup and starting pitching in the National League. They are the clear favorites to represent the Senior Circuit in the World Series, but there are concerns. Chicago is winning the series 57 percent of the time in simulations, but that includes an expectation that Zambrano will find his normal All-Star form and doesn’t account for the possible improvements L.A. can make. This will be a very intriguing series to watch.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS

The Brewers found their stride just in the nick of time and squeezed into the postseason. They did everything possible to make it this far pitching CC Sabathia multiple times on short rest, and bringing back Yovani Gallardo from what was thought to be a season-ending knee injury. Those gambles worked out, but now the team must keep on rolling the dice if is going to have a chance to advance further into October.

The simulations below assume Jeff Suppan will throw Games 1 and 4, and that Sabathia will be able to pitch both Games 2 and 5. Sabathia has already thrown over 250 innings this season, and has been pitching on short rest for the last two weeks which has to be a concern. Gallardo is questionable to pitch in the postseason as he is still not fully recovered from his knee injury. If he could play it provide a nice boost for Milwaukee as a power arm in the rotation or in the bullpen. The Brewers face a tall order either way being favored in simulations in only Sabathia’s projected Game 2 start. Cole Hamels is forecasted to make two quality starts to help Philadelphia win 63 percent of the series simulations.

Both teams feature some of the best power-hitters in the game today, but the Phillies have the edge in overall depth in the lineups. Milwaukee has Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, but are weak in several other spots. Rickie Weeks has had a disastrous year, which has led to a timeshare with veteran Ray Durham. Bill Hall has also ceded playing time to Craig Counsell because of some lackluster performance. Corey Hart has slumped badly in September (.198 OBP, 0 HR). Milwaukee is also very susceptible to the strikeout having seven different players fan at least 98 times this season.

Philadelphia has the last two NL MVPs in Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. Chase Utley is a strong candidate for this season’s award, and Howard has made a late season push for some more hardware himself. Pat Burrell has had another underrated season with his most home runs (33) since 2002 while Shane Victorino has caught fire in September (.344 avg., 7 SB).

One key stat in this series is that Milwaukee has blown 26 saves while Philadelphia’s Brad Lidge is 41-for-41 in save opportunities. The Phillies’ bullpen has proven much more reliable than Milwaukee’s over the course of the season. With Sabathia only able to pitch twice in this series, the two bullpens will play an important role in deciding who ultimately wins. That, combined with homefield, gives Philadelphia a big edge.

TAMPA BAY RAYS VS CHICAGO WHITE SOX

The White Sox were already fading late in the season and the extra games they needed to play just to get into the playoffs put them at a major disadvantage against the well-rested, streaking Rays. Simply put, Tampa Bay is the better team and has every conceivable advantage going into the series including rest, health, and home-field. The Rays win 70 percent of series simulations.

Tampa Bay has a large edge in every projected matchup winning all five potential games in at least 56 percent of simulations. While John Danks and Gavin Floyd have both had breakout seasons, both have exceeded their career highs in innings by a significant amount. Also, neither player is as talented or dominant as James Shields or Scott Kazmir. The White Sox lineup is also boom or bust. There is plenty of power and up and down the roster, but it is quite literally hit or miss. If Chicago isn’t hitting the ball out of the park it will struggle mightily to score runs. Manager Joe Maddon has molded the youthful Rays similar to the Angels in that they can play multiple styles of baseball, and force the action at all times.