Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst
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After an above average start to the season, Lance Berkman has put together one of the most productive ten game stretches in the history of the game. Since May 1^st, the Astros first baseman has been flat out ridiculous batting .641, with an OBP of .688 with the team winning nine of ten games.

AccuScore wanted to see just how rare this type of streak is and ran two simulations two see the odds of having 25 hits in 39 at bats (as Berkman has done).  The first simulation has a .297 hitter (Berkman’s average on April 30) and the second simulation has a .393 hitter (Berkman’s average today). 

 
The simulations show just how amazing this streak is, with him duplicating the effort in under 1 percent of simulations.

 IMPACT ON HOUSTON WIN TOTAL

Berkman’s impact can be felt beyond the Fantasy Baseball box scores and has had a direct impact on the Astros winning eight of their last nine. Berkman was playing well in April accounting for 1.89 runs per game (runs + RBI).  However, since the start of May, he has accounted for an astounding 2.78 runs per game. 

 
The simulations show just how amazing this streak is, with him duplicating the effort in under 1 percent of simulations. 

 
In AccuScore simulations, the ‘extra’ 0.9 runs per game translates to roughly +12 percentage point improvement in simulation winning percentage per game.  If you extrapolate that over 9 games you have an additional 1.1 wins.  In Houston’s eight wins during the streak they have been blowing teams out with just two wins coming by one run.  In these two wins Berkman accounted for seven team’s 10 total runs either scoring them himself (R) or driving a run in (RBI). 

The combination of Berkman’s per game boost and the fact that he clearly accounted for 2 of Houston’s close wins indicates that his hot streak has helped Houston win at least 3 more games than they normally would have.

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