Aaron Feldstein - AccuScore Analyst

If you listen to the critics, the National League East is all set. The battle between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies for the division title will begin when they meet again this September.

But objects in the mirror are closer then they appear. The object in the rearview mirror of the Phillies and the Mets are those pesky Florida Marlins.

After last night’s 7-3 win over the Mets, the Marlins find themselves only one game back in the NL East race. Yet, they are the forgotten team in the closest three-team division race in the majors.

The Marlins have 14 games against the division’s top dogs and another 18 against the rest of the NL East, a division they have a winning record against (22-17).

Probabilities of winning NL East

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Florida has been able to stick around the race thanks to its powerful bats. Dan Uggla leads the charge with 25 home runs and 63 RBIs. But the team has three players with either 20-plus home runs or 60-plus RBIs. The reemergence of Jorge Cantu at third for the fish gives them a chance to have all four members of the infield with 25 or more home runs by the end of the season. In fact, AccuScore projects five players to have more than 25, and three of them in the 30s.

Hanley Ramirez is quickly looking more like a middle of the lineup slugger than the leadoff hitter he actually is. The 2006 Rookie of the Year has 24 home runs and AccuScore projects him to finish with 39, the most home runs from a leadoff since Brady Anderson.

But for the Marlins, it seems to be the long ball or nothing. A batting average of .252 only puts them in front of four teams in the National League. Florida is also leading the majors in strikeouts, with the powerhouse Uggla first on the team with 109.

The Marlins have scored 506 runs this year, but they’ve allowed 536.

Florida’s pitching rotation started the season in shambles, with journeyman Mark Hendrickson as the opening day starter. A team ERA of 4.60 is 14th in the National League, with only the Rockies and the Pirates staring up at the 2003 World Champions. Scott Olsen and Ricky Nolasco have become the top two pitchers on the team, but they both have 3.94 and 4.07 ERA respectively.

The rotation needed an extreme makeover if the Marlins were going to continue to compete, and a makeover is what it got.

Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad have entered the rotation and look to make a major impact. In three starts, Volstad already is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.38. Johnson hasn’t earned a win in his three starts, but has an ERA of 3.71, 18 strikeouts and looks poised to return to the form that made him 4th in votes for Rookie of the Year in 2006 (behind Ramirez, Uggla and Ryan Zimmerman).

Before these two joined the rotation, AccuScore only projected the Marlins to have a 17 percent chance of winning the division. With the addition of these two young pitchers, along with last night’s win, the Marlins jumped up 11.8 percent and have more of a chance at winning the division than the Phillies.

The final intangible for Florida is the return of Anibal Sanchez. This Thursday, the right-hander who threw a no-hitter in 2006 will take to the mound in his first start since shoulder surgery. In ’06, Sanchez had a fantastic rookie year going 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA. If he can duplicate those types of numbers, Florida's odds to win the division should increase.

Finally, the Marlins ability to finish off games and win the close ones could put them over the top in the division. Florida is 17-12 in one run games and 8-5 in extra innings. Closer Kevin Gregg has 22 saves in 28 opportunities, but the Marlins have only lost three of the games he has blown. The Marlins are also first in the National League with 31 come-from-behind victories this season.

The Marlins are not only the quiet story in the NL East, they are also the forgotten team in their own state. AccuScore projects Florida to finish the season with 85 wins, one game back from the Mets for the division crown. However, if the Marlins can finish what they started and sweep this three-game series with the Mets, it may be time for the country to recognize the fish as serious contenders.