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Boston Holds 65 Percent Advantage
The ALCS shifts to Fenway Park with the series tied at 1-1.  Jon Lester has been the best pitcher on the planet of late, and he will take the mound for the Red Sox in Game 3.  The lefty gives Boston a big edge over the upstart Rays who continue to look to make history.
Jonathan Lee
AccuScore Analyst

RAYS VS RED SOX

SERIES

GAME1

GAME2

GAME3

GAME4

GAME5

GAME6

GAME7

Rays Win %

35%

0

9

36%

41%

42%

48%

55%

Red Sox Win %

65%

2

8

64%

59%

58%

52%

45%

The opening game of the series was a pitcher’s duel. The second game turned into a slugfest. The third? It is more likely to resemble Game 1 as the hottest pitcher on the planet takes the hill for the Red Sox. Jon Lester has shown to the world that he is more than just a feel-good story; he is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

The lefty showed he is completely recovered from his bout with cancer, and put up a Cy Young caliber year although few noticed between all the hoopla over his more celebrated rotation mates Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka, and the Manny Ramirez trade that brought Jason Bay. Lester won 16 games, struck out 152 batters, and posted an ERA of 3.21 in the regular season. He has been even better in the postseason allowing just one unearned run in 14 innings of work making up for the poor performances of Beckett.

Lester will start Game 3 for the Red Sox, and he gives his team a big advantage in the first game at Fenway. He will be opposed by Tampa’s Matt Garza who is hugely talented, but equally inconsistent. Lester is scheduled to also pitch a potential Game 7. His presence in the rotation in two of the five remaining games gives Boston a projected 65 percent chance to win the series. Winning one game in Tampa Bay was big for the Sox because they now have homefield advantage. The series will end early if they are able to sweep the three games at home.