Overall Outlook
It doesn’t really take a simulation to figure out how the AL East is going to wind up. Ever since Tampa Bay entered the league in 1998 the results have been pretty much the same each year. The Yankees have won the division nine out of ten times, with the Red Sox claiming their first victory last season. The Red Sox have finished in second place every other year, with the exception of 2006, when Toronto won second place by a game. That was the only year that Toronto didn’t finish in third place. The Orioles and the Rays have been locked in to the fourth and fifth spots respectively.

The Yankees are reclaiming the division in AccuScore projections, edging out the Red Sox by one game. The Red Sox are the favorites to win the Wild Card, ranking as the second best American League team in AccuScore projections, and making the playoffs in 74 percent of simulations. The battle for the division will be tight, but the season doesn’t really begin for the Yankees and Red Sox until October. The Blue Jays are putting up a winning record, and would be contenders in any other division in the league. The Rays are actually climbing out of the cellar, thanks to the Orioles blowing up their roster.

New York Yankees
There is no questioning the talent that exists in the Yankees lineup. The big questions that surround the Yankees come with the pitching staff, which was the main reason for their pursuit of Johan Santana during the off-season. Chien-Ming Wang leads the staff, winning 18 games with a 3.42 ERA in AccuScore projections. Phil Hughes is the top pitching prospect for the Yankees, but put up a 4.46 ERA last season through 72.2 innings. Hughes is winning 14 games in projections, but his ERA still remains high.

The Yankees have the offense to counter any struggles their pitching staff may provide. They also have a few young arms who could develop in to solid starting pitchers, as early as this season. Ian Kennedy is putting up a 3.31 ERA with 7 wins in 99 innings pitched in AccuScore projections. Joba Chamberlain is pitching 147 innings with a 2.06 ERA, and striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings in simulations. Kennedy will start the year in the rotation, and Chamberlain will most likely find his way in to the rotation by the All-Star Break.

The big problem for the Yankees over the past few seasons hasn’t been winning the division or making the playoffs. The Yankees have failed to make the World Series the past four seasons, and didn’t even make it to the ALCS last year. This has recently been due to poor pitching, something the Yankees are hoping to resolve internally with Kennedy, Hughes, and Chamberlain. If the Yankees want to make any sort of impact in the playoffs, they will need these pitchers to step up.

Boston Red Sox
Once branded as loveable losers, the Red Sox completed their transformation last season as the new evil empire in baseball. Boston may not have the payroll that the Yankees have, but they far exceed any other team in the majors. High priced talent like Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz will help the Red Sox dominate the rest of the American League, and remain neck and neck with the Yankees for the AL East division all season.

The Red Sox could be the best team in the majors if their young players live up to their expectations. Clay Buchholz is posting a 3.06 ERA and 14 wins in AccuScore simulations. Jon Lester isn’t faring as well, with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. Red Sox starters just need to go six innings with the combination of Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, and Jonathan Papelbon in the bullpen. All three relievers are dominating AccuScore projections, posting ERAs in the low 2.00 range, and allowing around one walk or hit per inning pitched.

Despite losing the AL East in AccuScore simulations, the Red Sox have the best shot at winning the World Series out of any team in the majors. Their rotation has the fewest holes, they have a lights out bullpen, and their offense is loaded with established stars like Ortiz and Ramirez, along with solid young hitters like Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays would be a serious contender in any other division in baseball. Unfortunately for them, they are stuck in the AL East behind the Red Sox and Yankees. Leading the way on offense is rising star Alex Rios, who is batting .311 with 23 homers in AccuScore projections. The strength of the Blue Jays is the starting pitching. The performance of Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett will make or break Toronto’s season.

Burnett has never won more than 12 games in a season throughout his career, but has won at least ten games the past three years. Burnett is in a contract year, and will be a highly sought after pitcher on the open market. Health concerns have limited Burnett, but if he can stay healthy, AccuScore projects 14 wins, a 3.75 ERA and over 200 strikeouts. Halladay has won 32 games the past two years, and although he failed to put up ace quality numbers last year with a 3.71 ERA, he should still be productive. In simulations, Halladay is winning 14 games with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum each have projected ERAs under 4.00, while Jesse Litsch rounds out the rotation with 9 wins and a 4.15 ERA.

If something were to go wrong with either the Yankees or Red Sox, the Blue Jays would be a top contender for the Wild Card spot. They will finish the season with a better record than almost every major league team, and possibly similar to some AL division winners. The pitching is there, and with an additional big bat, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to picture the Blue Jays competing with the Yankees and Red Sox for control over the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have a talented young roster, and although their small market status dooms them from ever being a contender in the AL East, their rise from the cellar this season won’t be a one year deal. Tampa Bay boasts promising young hitters such as Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, BJ Upton, and prospects like Evan Longoria. Their pitching staff is young and talented, featuring last year’s AL strikeout leader, Scott Kazmir, and James Shields, who won 12 games last year.

Many are questioning whether Pena can repeat his breakout season last year where he hit 46 homers with a .282 average. AccuScore thinks he can do better, projecting a 50 home run season with a .287 average. Hitting a home run once every 10 at bats takes a lot more than just luck, so anything in the 40-50 home run range is to be expected. Evan Longoria will start the season in the minors, but is hailed as the next “can’t miss” third base prospect, and will give the Rays a boost when he is called up, most likely by late May.

On the pitching side, newcomer Matt Garza will give the Rays a solid third starter. Garza is projected for 11 wins in his first season with the Rays. Scott Kazmir comes with health concerns, but even with a shortened season, AccuScore simulations project 11 wins. The best of all may be James Shields, who is winning 17 games in AccuScore simulations, with a dominating 1.03 WHIP. They may be far behind the top three in the division, but this will be a solid season for the Rays, and will most likely mark the end of their reign as the worst team in the AL East.

Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles must have figured that the only way to get out of finishing fourth would be to tank the season and go down in the standings. Baltimore traded away Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard, and could still deal second baseman Brian Roberts. In return the Orioles got Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Luke Scott, and several pitching prospects. Brian Roberts may be traded by the July 31st trade deadline, which will complete the rebuilding process.

None of these players will make a huge impact this season. Jones is projected to bat .246, Sherrill will be the closer in Baltimore, and Luke Scott is hitting 22 homers with a .262 average in simulations. The player that the Orioles seem to be building around is Nick Markakis. Markakis is batting .303 with 21 homers and 102 RBIs in simulations with the young Orioles.

Baltimore’s biggest struggle will be the development of their young pitching staff. Adam Loewen is the “ace” of the young staff, but isn’t reaching his potential this season, winning just 11 games with a 4.19 ERA in simulations. Daniel Cabrera and Matt Albers are both posting ERAs above 5.00, while Steve Trachsel isn’t too far behind. Jeremy Guthrie is the lone bright spot in the rotation, putting up a 3.67 ERA in AccuScore simulations. If the Orioles want to have any type of shot in the future in the AL East, they will need some strong development this season from their starting pitchers.