Hello folks,

I don’t know if I ever properly introduced myself. My name is Stephen Oh and I am one of the co-founders of AccuScore.  We’ve been around for a few years now and I am pleased with how our simulations have performed predicting game winners, projecting fantasy stats and of course, offering AccuScore Winner's Edge Members our betting predictions.

Most of you who are reading this are relatively new to AccuScore.com.  Chances are you originally heard about AccuScore from seeing our game forecasts and fantasy projections on ESPN.com, Yahoo! And CBS Sports.  If you are hear to read our analysis, check out our detailed previews, use our fantasy tools and blog then let me personally thank you for helping build our growing base of loyal members.

If you are here looking for sports betting information, then keep reading to learn what you can expect as an AccuScore Winner's Edge Member.

IMPROVEMENT ON YOUR CURRENT R.O.I.
Whenever I meet anyone and tell them what I do, they inevitably ask the question: 

“If the simulation is so good at predicting sports why aren’t you a billionaire?”

Despite the cheery expression I have in my photo, I am actually a high strung, relatively angry individual.  I am very familiar with the dynamics of the sports betting industry, the overall accuracy of sports bettors and the profit sportsbooks make as a result.  I have reviewed sports betting financials from sportsbooks, gambling surveys and looked at the 12,000+ “bets” that have been made on AccuScore’s Challenge (fantasy sportsbook). 

As the graph below shows, the average sports bettor wins 48-52% of the time.  Now if everyone were honest I believe this figure would be 50% at best, but let’s give people the benefit of the doubt.  Let’s assume that the only people who would regularly bet on sports are at least winning over half their bets, which encourages them to continue betting.

Unfortunately, you have to be 52.4% accurate to make profits given the commission / vig that sportsbooks charge.  Over the course of a year an average gambler may bet on 3 to 5 different sports and probably make 500+ bets a year.  Now there will be hot and cold streaks throughout the year, but with the vig, only 40% of the gamblers end the season up for the year.  If you look at the % of people who are up year after year it is a fraction of 40%.

I recently looked at the results of over 20,000 bets made since April 1, 2006 and found overall accuracy to be 53.0%.  Now within this large sample of games you have high notes (ex. 57% in 2006 College Football) and low notes (51.3% in College Basketball).   In 2007, our performance has been remarkably consistent and profitable across sports.  As of 12/18 AccuScore Live Betting Predictions are:

854-726 (54.1%, +5500) in College Basketball
361-303 (54.4%, +2770) in NBA
679-582 (53.8%, +3880) in College Football
215-178 (54.7%, +1920) in NFL
1299-1154 (53.0%, +10195) in MLB (Side Value)

The average MLB Side Value bet actually pays off better than +100 which is why the return was so good in 2008 despite accuracy being lower than the point spread and over/under predictions made in other sports.

I also checked how Winner's Edge Members with at least 10 Challenge picks made have performed.  These Winner's Edge Members have accumulated a combined record of 1239-1037 (53.8% accuracy).

While Winner's Edge Members are only 1.6 percentage points higher than Free Members, this equates to a net difference of 30,000 units with a scoring of +100 for every win, -110 for every loss.

I also reviewed a survey we made of Winner's Edge Members last year which indicated over 65% of them were profitable.

I combined these sources of information and estimated that on average, AccuScore PRO’s are 53.5% accurate and as a result, 60% of them have profited over the course of an entire year.  More importantly, a very large percentage of members who profit in Year 1 are profiting in Year 2 as well.

So to answer the average dumb guy’s question.  Our service has proven itself in consistently increasing bankrolls by 20 to 50% over the course of an entire season.  This type of performance would absolutely destroy the average return generated in the stock market over that same period of time.  However, 20-50% increase is not going to make you a billionaire unless you are already a billionaire.  However, if I am someone investing $10,000 in sports and make a $4,000 profit I’m a) thrilled by being profitable and 2) feel pretty damn good about spending $500 for an annual membership.

ACCUSCORE WINNER'S EDGE IS THE ONLY SOURCE FOR GAMBLING INFORMATION
Most of you have seen our game forecasts which include average score predictions on ESPN, CBS Sports and a host of other sites.  Some of you may like to use the forecasted score and winning percentage to make sports picks.  You might think that you are getting AccuScore betting predictions for free.

Sorry folks, you aren’t getting betting predictions for free.

The reason why we simulate a game thousands of times is to get the full range of possible results.  When you plot these results on a graph you get a distribution that is not normally distributed.  We make betting predictions based on the median point spread and median over/under.  The average simulation point spread and average simulation over/under do not correspond to the medians which is why you will see a AccuScore results on non-AccuScore sites that differ significantly from the results you see on our site.  Other sites use our game previews, they do not get to show our betting predictions.

We also make major updates several times before each game is finalized.  Our customers typically post the initial forecast but oftentimes do not update the forecasts based on updated injury reports, weather changes, and most importantly betting line movement.

HOW DO I BREAK THE BANK?
We know that most of you are satisfied with 53.5% accuracy, but we also know that 100% of you want to get be accurate 60% or more.   AccuScore Winner's Edge Members also benefit from the Daily Line Report which not only summarizes upcoming game simulation lines, it also presents an archive of results with the betting prediction records sliced and diced along a variety of variables.  For example, did you know that in the 2007 NFL Season, AccuScore has a combined point spread and over/under record of 80-51 when two AFC Teams play each other vs. just 64-68 when two NFC Teams play each other.  Overall accuracy is 54.8%, but a number of our Winner's Edge Members focus on this “hot zone” to outperform AccuScore.

If you are hoping that AccuScore or any other service will help you consistently get over 60% accuracy you need to snap out of that thinking right now.  If your genuinely have performed at that level over the course of more than 6 months then I’m pretty sure we’ll offer you a job. 

My personal goal for AccuScore Winner's Edge is to provide data that helps a majority of users actually profit on a consistent basis in sports betting. 

I want our members to share their thoughts, systems and results with the rest of the Winner's Edge Community in order to create an exclusive group of informed bettors who collectively have a big edge on everyone else.