Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst
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Last season, MLB Home Underdogs covered an unbelievably high 48.3%.  Because most of these Home Dogs paid off over 110 units on a 100 unit bet and there were over 700 of them, simply betting on Home Dogs in 2006 delivered +6000 Units!  That means you didn’t have to know jack about baseball and could have quintupled your bankroll nonetheless.

Unfortunately, these good times did not roll into 2007.  Home Dogs stumbled out of the gate and after a few months were covering under 40%.  At this point they’ve recovered to 43.6%, but it’s still not anywhere near 2006 levels.  The +6000 of 2006 is down to -11000 in 2007.  Remember, these units and records are NOT AccuScore records, they are the actual betting results.

So Home Dogs didn’t deliver easy money like in 2006, but AccuScore still loves Home Dogs.

As of 8/24 AccuScore’s Side Value for all predictions was a shade over +6000

 This is a great overall return, but I looked specifically at games where AccuScore forecasted an upset.  An forecasted upset is where the Vegas Underdog is winning over 50% of simulations.  I found some interesting results: 

Over 30% of the +6000 comes from the 178 straight out Home Upset forecasts.  These games delivered +1865 for the season.  Meanwhile, when AccuScore forecasted a Road Team upset it was just 45.9% for -716 units.  In case you are wondering, there were 48 games where there was even money and AccuScore’s SV prediction record was 25-23, +40.

So Home Underdogs delivered bad news in 2007 by not covering at their 2006 rate, but AccuScore was still able to identify a high percentage of strong Home Dogs.  Strong enough that just 9.4% of total bets have delivered over 30% of total profits.

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caley said:

Nice post. i'm wondering if you can show the MLB Home Dog and Road Dog upsets for the 2008 Season so far... by my calculation on the DLR 2008 Home Dogs aren't doing so well... i haven't taken a look at Road Dogs yet. Let me know your thoughts about 2008 MLB Home Dogs. Cheers

June 19, 2008

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