Quantcast Skip to content
Waiver Wire Wonders - Week 16 Print E-mail
Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
Read Blog

If you’re a picky eater like I am, then going to a fast food restaurant is like taking a trip to Vegas. The hopes are high as you go in to get your hamburger with mustard and ketchup only. Like Vegas, the fast food “house” usually foils your plans, slipping a pickle underneath your sandwich, despite the fact that no one really likes pickles on their hamburgers.

A lot of fantasy football players saw the house win this past week. Joseph Addai owners are looking for the mustard on their burger, after salivating all week over his match up against the Raiders. Tony Romo and Tom Brady owners each got an extra serving of pickles under their burgers. Shaun Alexander owners are fed up with their service, and are looking for that new restaurant that is serving up Aaron Stecker and Sage Rosenfels.

That new restaurant is the Waiver Wire Café, where you can feast on some waiver wire wonders. While it is nearly impossible to predict which one of your stars will have a day like Brady or Romo, it is easy to off-set their poor performance with strong outings from waiver wire guys like Stecker. This week’s waiver wire wonders will help you find those types of solid performances, with no pickles hiding under the burger.

QUARTERBACKS

Brodie Croyle – I’m ignoring Croyle’s mediocre numbers this season and focusing on his opponent this week: the Lions. If Tarvaris Jackson can throw for two touchdowns against them, then Croyle should be able to do the same. AccuScore projects 238 yards with two or more touchdowns in 20 percent of simulations.

Shaun Hill – In two games, Hill has completed 78 percent of his passes, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. The 49ers will probably play from behind against the Bucs, putting Hill in a lot of passing situations. AccuScore projects Hill for a 62.9 completion percentage, which will pay off when the attempts add up.

RUNNING BACKS

Aaron Stecker –I’m still sticking with Stecker. He has the same value as Deuce McAllister had at the start of the season, and that is a solid flex option. Even with 18 carries, AccuScore projects Stecker to gain 80 yards with a touchdown in 42 percent of simulations.

DeAngelo Williams – I have been saying since before the season started that this guy was the guy to own in Carolina. Even if he is getting 15 carries a game he will put up decent numbers, with the chance to break a big run. AccuScore projects 4.3 yards per carry, with a 20 percent chance of a touchdown.

LaMont Jordan – With waiver wire wonder Justin Fargas going down, Jordan’s fantasy value returns. We don’t know if it will be him or Domanic Rhodes getting the majority of the work load, but Jordan is my pick, based on his early season performance.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Anthony Gonzalez – Gonzalez has been very solid replacing Marvin Harrison, and should continue to put up good numbers, even if Harrison returns. As the number two receiver, AccuScore projects 53 yards with a touchdown in 31 percent of simulations.

Reggie Brown – In his last five road games Brown has 26 receptions for 329 yards and 3 touchdowns. In his last five home games he has 16 receptions for 214 yards and no touchdowns. He is on the road this week, and playing against one of the worst passing defenses in the league. AccuScore projects 48 yards with a touchdown in 31 percent of simulations.

Roydell Williams – I’m buying Roydell Williams, even if it is at a high point. He is hit or miss, but he averages three receptions per game this season, and has found the end zone three times in the last three weeks. AccuScore projects a touchdown in almost half of simulations against the Jets.

TIGHT ENDS

Tony Scheffler – Scheffler does best against teams who can’t stop the tight ends. San Diego is one of those teams, allowing seven points a week. AccuScore projects 31 yards with a touchdown in 22 percent of simulations.

Donald Lee – Lee is the best tight end that isn’t widely owned. He can get four receptions on any given week, and has found the end zone five times in the last six weeks. The Bears allow seven points a week to tight ends, making Lee a great play. AccuScore projects a touchdown in 23 percent of simulations.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Arizona – The Atlanta Falcons have a poor offense, and their whole organization is in shambles. That makes them a great fantasy target for opposing defenses. The Cardinals are ranked as a top five defense in AccuScore simulations this week, getting two or more sacks 81 percent of the time, recovering a fumble in 90 percent of simulations, and intercepting two or more passes in 65 percent of simulations. They are also returning one of those interceptions for a touchdown in a whopping 31 percent of simulations.

Tampa Bay – I’m surprised the Bucs aren’t widely owned, especially with the schedule they have. They played Atlanta last week, and get the 49ers this week. Against the worst offense in the league, AccuScore projections have the Bucs recording two sacks, with a fumble recovery and an interception.

Last Week’s All-Waiver Team

QB – Sage Rosenfels: 16 points
RB – Aaron Stecker: 23
RB – Kolby Smith: 10
WR – Arnaz Battle: 2
WR – Nate Burleson: 2
TE – Robert Royal: 0
D/ST – Miami: 9

Grand Total: 62 points

Trackback(0)
Comments (3)add comment

pw1040 said:

 
Tim,

Of course, the answer is to not take either of them and take Stecker, D'Angelo Williams, or, my fave, Jerious Norwood. Even on ATL, he should do well against a defense that you wouldn't even consider if they weren't playing the Falcons.

PW
December 20, 2007

twilliams said:

 
Both of those running backs are inconsistent. Alexander's production is inconsistent, while Jones gets an inconsistent amount of carries. I like Jones better, but he's a gamble. He had 5 carries last week, following 23 the week before. In the last nine weeks he has 3 games with 5 or fewer carries, and 3 games with 20 or more carries. He has scored six touchdowns during that stretch, and is good for a point or two receiving.

Alexander has been getting consistent carries, but is doing nothing with them. His best game since week three was week 13. He carried 20 times for 65 yards and a touchdown. This week he gets the Ravens defense, who are one of the best at stopping the run. The last two weeks Alexander has combined for 17 carries and 55 yards, while Seattle has put the game in Hasselbeck's hands.

I like Jones. You take a risk with either one. With Jones you are hoping for carries. With Alexander you are hoping for a turnaround in production. I'll take the productive back and hope he gets the carries, rather than the back who is unproductive with the carries he gets.
December 19, 2007

jmanasse said:

 
Tim,
I can pick up either S. Alexander or K. JOnes of Detroit in my fantasy league as I had Fargas who is now out. This is the finals...one game, and one game only. Who do you think?
Jason
December 19, 2007

Write comment
quote
bold
italicize
underline
strike
url
image
quote
quote
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley

busy
 
< Prev   Next >