When Adam Sandler and Drew Berrymore starred in the movie “50 First Dates”, they could have very easily recruited fantasy football players for the scene at the memory loss clinic.  The majority of fantasy players are like “Eight Second Tom”, the guy who can’t remember a thing after eight seconds have passed.

Take Brian Westbrook owners for example.  After being the second most productive running back in the game this season, Westbrook owners are furious over his selfless kneel down late in the fourth quarter last week.  Forget for a second that he didn’t go a single week with less than 11 fantasy points.  Never mind that he missed a game and still outperformed all but one running back this season.  Westbrook’s 14 points ruined your seasons!

If you lost because of Brian Westbrook, it was probably not because of Brian Westbrook.  I played a Westbrook owner this past week, and almost won, thanks to poor performances from some of his other players like Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne.  If it hadn’t been for Adrian Peterson saving his day, I would have won, most likely by less than the missed-Westbrook touchdown.  The truth is that Westbrook is still one of the best producers this year, so if you are looking for someone to blame for your loss, you are probably pointing the finger at the wrong guy.  Now let’s take a look at the truth about week 16.

AccuScore projections are in parenthesis.

The Truth about Quarterbacks

Derek Anderson (15.2) and Carson Palmer (15) won’t put up nearly as many points as they did in their first meeting.  They will still be productive.

Tom Brady (23.6) is a must start, but he will see another disappointing week if the weather is the same way as it was last week.

This is the only week I would consider starting Jon Kitna (14.6), but only if I am desperate.

I really like Brodie Croyle (12.7) against the Lions, even more so than AccuScore does.

You can beat Atlanta in many ways.  Kurt Warner (16.8) will do it through the air this week, making him a good start.

Shaun Hill (10.8) will pick up some garbage time points, but that doesn’t make him a great start, unless you are desperate.

You want to avoid the following guys:  Brett Favre (12.3), Marc Bulger (12), and Eli Manning (9.8).

The Truth about Running Backs

I like both Maurice Jones-Drew (14.5) and Fred Taylor (9.6) against Oakland.

Willie Parker (14.2) will have a great game for a change.

LaMont Jordan (6.4) is a better option than Domanic Rhodes (3.5), although you might already have better options on your bench.

Aaron Stecker (11.5) is still a great play, even with Reggie Bush active.  Stecker is just as valuable as Deuce McAllister was at the start of the season.

Don’t count on a big week from Clinton Portis (8.7) against the number one rushing defense.

Brandon Jacobs (14.9) benefits the most from the Jeremy Shockey injury.

Starting Shaun Alexander (5.5) is like watching Grey’s Anatomy with your wife.  You only do it because you have no choice.  If you have a choice, stay away.  Maurice Morris (6) is better, and should be getting all of the carries.

Speaking of the better halves of running back tandems, AccuScore and I disagree on who is better between DeShaun Foster (7.5) and DeAngelo Williams (6.5).  If Williams got all of the carries he would be a stud.

Once again, Jamal Lewis (17.6) is going to be a top performer, continuing his run of great opponents in the playoffs.

Ryan Grant (17.5) is a must start, and a number one pick next season.

The Truth about Wide Receivers

Steve Smith (9.7) saw a lot of catches last week, and will have a good game this week without Roy Williams in the Dallas secondary.

I said Palmer and Anderson wouldn’t have monster days.  That doesn’t mean that we won’t see production from Braylon Edwards (12), TJ Houshmandzadeh (11.1), and Chad Johnson (10.5.)

Plaxico Burress (9.6) won’t put up monster numbers with Shockey out for the season.

Reggie Brown (7.5) does much better on the road than at home, and is a great sleeper play for this week.

Roydell Williams (8.4) won’t score two touchdowns, but I’m buying his performance last week, and I think he remains a decent play this week.

I’m also buying these receivers:  Anthony Gonzalez (6.6), David Patten (6.1), and Brandon Marshall (6.6).

I’m not buying the following receivers:  Greg Camarillo (1.5), Dennis Northcutt (5.4), Chris Henry (4.4), and Sammie Parker (3.9).

The Truth about Tight Ends

The following tight ends won’t repeat their week 15 performance:  Kris Wilson (0.6), Ben Patrick (1.4), Brandon Manumaleuna (0.7), Troy Bienemann (1.4).

I would keep an eye on Kevin Boss (2.5) with Shockey out for the season.

Donald Lee (3.4) and Tony Scheffler (4.6) are the best tight ends that aren’t widely owned.  I like them much more than AccuScore this week.

The following tight ends have great match ups against teams that allow a lot of points to tight ends:  Antonio Gates (10), Greg Olsen (2.7), Dallas Clark (7.2), and Tony Gonzalez (8.2).

The Truth about Defense/Special Teams

The following teams will bounce back from their horrible performance in week 15:  Pittsburgh (15), Kansas City (14), Arizona (14), Jacksonville (16.6), and Seattle (16.5).

The following teams will free fall from their good performance in week 15:  Philadelphia (8.3), Cleveland (7.6), NY Jets (9.5), Miami (4.3), and Carolina (5.9).

The following teams will repeat their great performance from week 15:  Tampa Bay (11), New England (16), San Diego (13.3), Dallas (12.6), and Green Bay (14.4).

Atlanta and San Francisco opponents are must starts.  This week those teams are Arizona and Tampa Bay.