Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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I was shopping at the store the other night, picking up a few items for dinner.  The shopping trip was planned.  Go in, grab some hot dogs, buns, and check out what they had on sale in the ice cream section.  As I was headed to the ice cream section, I noticed something on display that totally changed my pre-shopping plan.  The display in the center of the aisle had boxes of Alpha-Bits cereal, something I hadn’t seen since I was younger.

I was left with a predicament.  Do I go with my original plan of getting ice cream, or do I get the cereal?  I already had Frosted Flakes at home (thus sticking to my “only if it has a cartoon character on the box” rule) and didn’t have any ice cream.  However, I couldn’t pass up on the chance to get Alpha-Bits cereal.  The ice cream would have to wait.

When your fantasy football draft comes up, you may be influenced by pre-draft plans that tell you to take two running backs with your first two picks, or a quarterback in a certain round.  Those plans sound great on paper.  The people who have successful drafts are the people who tear that game plan to pieces once their draft begins, and operates with a plan that isn’t so restrictive.

Let’s just say you go in to the draft with the number one pick, and you have the plan of selecting two running backs with your first two picks.  The problem is that eight other owners went in with the same plan.  You now have the choice of taking a guy like Reggie Bush or Darren McFadden with your second round pick, or going with a top quarterback like Peyton Manning, or a top wide receiver like Terrell Owens or Reggie Wayne.

You didn’t walk in to this draft expecting to land LaDainian Tomlinson with your first pick, and Peyton Manning with your second pick.  The answer is pretty obvious in this scenario what you should do.  Forget the running back in the second round, and go with the top quarterback option.  What do you do in the later rounds when the answer is less obvious?

Let’s just say that you didn’t plan on drafting a defense until the next to last round.  All of a sudden it’s the 12^th round, and options like New England and Chicago are somehow still on the board.  Do you go with the defense, or do you take a guy like DJ Hackett, who you have pegged for a big year, despite the fact that you already have three wide receivers?

So you’re looking for a draft strategy, but I’m here to tell you that the best strategy to have is none at all.  That’s not to say you shouldn’t go in to the draft without a blue print or a guide.  So here’s my position by position draft guide for your standard leagues, and remember, don’t play this exactly by the book when players start dropping to you in the draft.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady had an amazing season last year which is not easily duplicated.  That being said, even Tony Romo and Peyton Manning were better than any running back not named Tomlinson.  Due to the fact that there are 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL, the value of quarterbacks takes a hit.  I would never take a quarterback in the first round, but I may consider it in the first half of the third round.

Typically I like to take my quarterback in the seventh or eighth round, after loading up on a few running backs and wide receivers.  The reason for this is simple.  Last year there were six quarterbacks generally taken in the first six rounds.  Five of those quarterbacks finished in the top 12.  However, five other top 12 quarterbacks were taken in rounds seven through eleven, and the remaining two were undrafted.  I found that you can still get the Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Anderson, and Matt Hasselbeck types in the sixth or seventh round, even after those guys finished fourth, sixth, and eighth respectively last season.

Running Backs

If I’m in the later half of the first round I almost always take a running back with my first two picks.  If I’m at the start of the first round I’m getting a better running back like Tomlinson, Addai, or Peterson, so I can afford to load up at another position like wide receiver, going with a guy like Steve Smith or TJ Houshmandzadeh with my second round pick.  I usually like to take four running backs in the first six rounds, with my specialty being my sixth round running back pick.

In past years my sixth round guys have been breakout stars like Tiki Barber, Jamal Lewis, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore and LaMont Jordan last year (hey, he had a few good weeks, and I traded him after week two in most of my leagues…I’m counting it.)  This year I’m focused on guys like Matt Forte and Thomas Jones, both of which are starters, not in split situations, and coming in to this season with a big question mark.

Wide Receivers

I don’t want to say that wide receivers are a crap shoot, because that suggests that you can ignore wide receivers and have the same chance of success as the person who took two receivers in their first four picks.  What I will say is that, in order to get the best value in the draft, you should spread your wide receiver selections around.

Last year in the first six rounds there were generally six quarterbacks taken, 33 running backs, and 27 wide receivers.  Five of the six quarterbacks went on to be top 12 finishers at quarterback.  Two thirds of the running backs taken finished in the top 30 running backs.  Only 56 percent of the wide receivers selected finished in the top 30 wide receivers.  Of the receivers taken after the sixth round, 30 percent made the top 30 list.

I’m not suggesting that you hold off on receivers until late in the draft.  I am suggesting that you take two receivers in the first six rounds, since those guys give you a 50/50 shot at landing a solid starter.  Then test your luck in the later rounds, hoping you land this year’s Wes Welker or Brandon Marshall.

Tight Ends

The emergence of several solid tight end options has turned this in to the “closers” of fantasy football.  You’re never supposed to pay for saves, and I’m suggesting that you never pay for a tight end.  Last year the difference between the top tight end and the 12^th ranked tight end was only 76 points.  That’s 4.75 points per week, which doesn’t justify the price.  Why take Antonio Gates or Jason Witten in the fourth round when you can take Heath Miller in the tenth round, or Tony Scheffler in the 11^th round.

Sure, you’ll be envious of the guy who has Gates on their team when you look at Scheffler on your squad.  However, they will be envious when they see Anquan Boldin on your squad, while they are stuck with Kevin Curtis as one of their top receivers.

Defense and Kickers

I save these spots for the end of the draft.  Last year the difference between the top defense and the 12^th ranked defense was 4.25 points per week.  The difference between the top kicker and the 12^th ranked kicker was less than two points per week.  The thing is, no one was drafting Mason Crosby last year, just like no one was drafting Robbie Gould in 2006 when he was the top kicker in the game.  As for defense, people may have been drafting the Chargers and Patriots early, but I doubt you’ll find many people who took the Seahawks, Vikings, or Colts anywhere before the 14^th round.  Load up on other positions throughout the draft, and save these two for the final rounds.

Two Quarterback Leagues

The exceptions to the above rules come if you play in a two quarterback league.  I like taking a quarterback around the seventh round, but in a two quarterback league, where solid starting options are more scarce than running backs, I would take a quarterback in the first two rounds, with my second guy coming no later than round seven.

I would also cut down the amount of running backs I drafted early.  With more early picks being dedicated to quarterbacks, you will find more value in the running back department.  This also provides maximum value for wide receivers in the middle rounds.  In a league that demands at least two starters from quarterback, running back, and wide receiver, I absolutely would not take a tight end until the late rounds, just to load up on the scarce talent as early as possible.

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