Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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When I originally wrote this, I was against taking Randy Moss in the first round.  Since then I found myself taking Moss with the eighth overall pick.  It is the first time I have taken a wide receiver in the first round that I can remember.  Marion Barber went with the sixth pick, and I was left choosing between Marshawn Lynch, Larry Johnson, Ryan Grant, Clinton Portis, and Frank Gore as my number one back.  I figured that one of them would slip to me in the second round, and I was correct, as I got Grant in the second.

So after originally saying I wouldn't take Moss in the first round, why did I do it?  I took Moss because I liked all five of those running backs about the same, but I liked Moss much better than the options I figured I would have in the second, like Terrell Owens, Braylon Edwards, and Reggie Wayne.  I took a gamble that one of my five running backs would drop to me with the fifth pick in the second round, and the gamble paid off.  I don't think I would take Moss anywhere earlier than eighth, simply because there would be less of a chance of getting one of those backs with a later pick in the second round.

Along with my position on Moss changing slightly, my position has changed on guys I'm targeting, and a few of my sleepers.

Guys I’m targeting

Marques Colston – With uncertainty surrounding Brandon Marshall's playing time, Colston replaces him on my target list.  Colston is going at the end of the second round, but I like him just as much as my other top tier receivers like T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Reggie Wayne, and Braylon Edwards.  Colston is entering his third season in the NFL, which is usually a big season for wide receivers.  In his first year he caught 70 passes with just over 1000 yards and eight touchdowns.  Last year he caught 98 passes for 1200 yards and 11 touchdowns.  AccuScore projects a similar season as last year, and I like Colston a little more than the AccuScore projections due to the improvement he showed last season, and my expectations that he will improve once again this season.

Santonio Holmes – Holmes was the 17^th ranked receiver last season, catching for 942 yards and eight touchdowns in his sophomore season, and that was after missing three games.  I like Holmes to have a big breakout for a few reasons.  The first is that he has established a solid rapport with Big Ben the last two years.  The Steelers also added Limas Sweed in the draft, which will only take coverage away from Holmes.  Finally, he saw a major increase in his numbers from year one to year two, and I expect another increase going in to year three.

Anquan Boldin – Boldin only played in 12 games last season, but still managed to put up 853 yards and nine touchdowns.  Over a 16 game season that would be 1137 yards and 12 touchdowns, which is more touchdowns that he scored in 2005 and 2006 combined.  AccuScore simulations have Boldin putting up over 1300 yards and nine touchdowns this season.  You run a risk with Boldin’s numbers, because you never know which receiver in Arizona will get the points each week.  Larry Fitzgerald, with 10 touchdowns in 15 games last year, is going in the late second round, while Boldin is going in the early fourth, which is solid value considering Boldin will be a low number one or solid number two receiver.

The Sleepers

After watching Marquis Colston break out in the 2006 season, I decided to try and find the breakout star of the 2007 season.  My qualifications were a team that didn’t have solid wide receivers, which would allow someone to step up and be the number one guy.  The player also had to have talent, and not necessarily be a rookie, but a guy like Reggie Williams, who caught 10 touchdowns last year, isn’t really a surprise if he has a break out season.  This receiver has to be someone no one expected to have a break out season.  After nailing Brandon Marshall last season, I’m looking to go two for two.  My early pick was Bryant Johnson, but with Johnson struggling in the pre-season, I've decided to go a different direction.

My new candidates are Devard Darling, Eddie Royal, Josh Morgan, Robert Meachem, and Donnie Avery.  I like Darling's numbers last season in Baltimore with their shaky quarterback situation, but I don't like him to improve on that with Brodie Croyle.  With the uncertain quarterback situation in San Francisco, I'm eliminating Morgan.  Avery will probably be a number three in St. Louis, and Meachem doesn't have the number two role in New Orleans.  That leaves me with...

Eddie Royal – For the second year in a row I'm going with a Broncos wide receiver.  I like Jay Cutler, and Brandon Marshall should miss at least one game, if not more.  That almost guarantees Royal a starting job to open the season, and I like him to out-perform Darrell Jackson, winning the number two spot when Marshall returns.  AccuScore projects Royal to be the second best receiver in Denver, and while Royal is burried on the rankings list for wide receivers, I like him to be this year's Brandon Marshall due to his speed, and Jay Cutler's talent, as well as the overall strength of the Denver offense.

Reggie Williams – Williams was a touchdown machine last season, but not much else, posting just 38 receptions and 629 yards.  A closer look shows that Williams was better with Garrard under center.  Without Garrard, Williams averaged 2.2 receptions, 39 yards per game, and 0.4 touchdowns per game.  If Garrard can stay healthy, expect another big year from Williams.  He may not get much yardage in a running system, but he could put up 700 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.  Last year only three people caught more than 12 touchdowns, and they were Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Braylon Edwards.

Nate Burleson – I'm not saying Burleson will be a stud all season, but for the first few weeks he will be one of the only receivers in Seattle with Deion Branch and Bobby Engram missing time.  AccuScore has Burleson projected to reach double digit fantasy points in his first five games, which should give him some solid trade value after two or three weeks of production.

The Busts

Marvin Harrison – Harrison will be 36 this season.  Last year he only played in five games due to injury.  For anyone thinking that the 36 year old Harrison can avoid injuries this season, and return to being a 1400 yard, 12 touchdown receiver, I have news for you.  You’re taking a bad risk.  The guys drafted around Harrison are Hines Ward, Dwayne Bowe, and Calvin Johnson.  AccuScore has Harrison ranked slightly ahead of these guys, but that’s assuming Harrison stays healthy the whole season.  That’s a risk I won’t take.

Roy Williams – Granted Williams missed four games last season.  However, in the 12 games he played, he only caught for 836 yards and five touchdowns.  He only caught for more than 100 yards in three games.  He only caught for a touchdown in four games.  There were seven games where Williams caught for 53 yards or less.  This was in a Mike Martz passing offense.  So why do you expect Williams to be any better than guys like Santonio Holmes or Brandon Marshall, both of which are going after Williams in most drafts?

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twilliams said:

Yeah, that would be a better word to use. Let's chalk it up to going to school to study business, but at the same time spending more time studying sports than studying accounting, which explains how I landed in my current field.

August 23, 2008

DwightN said:

"I like Holmes to have a big breakout for a few reasons. The first is that he has established a solid repertoire with Big Ben the last two years." Just a little native tongue help....he has established a solid "rapport" with Big Ben--a irrelevancy in fantasy football, but somewhat significant for a writer.

August 23, 2008

TravisG said:

It would help to have a date for when this article was written. It doesn't mention the suspension for Marshall so I'm guessing it was written before it was announced.

August 14, 2008

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