Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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Remember a few years ago when the tight end class consistent of Tony Gonzalez and everyone else?  Then came guys like Antonio Gates, Heath Miller, Jeremy Shockey, Chris Cooley, Kellen Winslow, and the whole game changed.  Now the tight end class is deep.  No longer is the position full of blockers who catch the occasional pass.  The majority of the top tight ends are the best receivers on their team.

The top options, like Gates, Winslow, and Witten are going in the fourth round in most drafts.  The next wave is going in round six, with guys like Jeremy Shockey, Heath Miller and Tony Scheffler going in rounds eight or later.  Last year the difference between Jason Witten, the top tight end, and Heath Miller, taken in most drafts in the ninth round, was 3.4 points per week.

Tight ends have become the closers of fantasy football.  In the fourth round you could take a solid number two receiver like Greg Jennings or Brandon Marshall, or you could go with a running back option like Edgerrin James or a quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger.  In the ninth round your options, other than Heath Miller, are wide receivers like Bernard Berrian or Bobby Engram, quarterbacks like Philip Rivers, or running backs like Kevin Jones.

The drop off from guys like Gates and Witten to guys like Miller and Shockey are very small, about two to three points per week according to AccuScore simulations.  Considering the drop off from Roethlisberger to Rivers, Marshall to Berrian, or James to Jones would be much bigger, I suggest passing on top options like Witten and Gates, and settling for a small drop in production from Shockey or Miller.

Guys I’m targeting

Heath Miller – Coverage is going to Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall in the backfield.  Coverage is going to Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington, and Limas Sweed.  Coverage also has to go to the mobile Ben Roethlisberger.  So how much coverage will go to Heath Miller?  The answer is not enough.

Last year only three tight ends caught more touchdowns than Miller.  Those tight ends were Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, and Chris Cooley.  The knock on Miller is that he doesn’t get as many yards as the other top tight ends, but he is a top red zone target for the Steelers, and should see less coverage this season with all of the talent on the Steelers offense.  Miller is going in the ninth round of most drafts.

Jeremy Shockey – The trade of Shockey to the Saints gives him a big boost in value.  Shockey is going around the eighth round since the trade, but that could be too low considering the heavy passing offense the Saints employ.  AccuScore projects Shockey to catch for 753 yards and five touchdowns.  Those are similar numbers to Dallas Clark, Chris Cooley, and Tony Gonzalez.  Those three are going in the sixth round, two rounds earlier than Shockey, for the same production as Shockey.

Tony Scheffler – In twelve games he caught 49 passes for 549 yards and five touchdowns.  In a 16 game season that would be 65 catches, 732 yards, and seven touchdowns.  Those are Chris Cooley numbers.  Scheffler is typically the 13^th tight end off the board, going in the 11^th round.  If you miss out on the top guys, and miss out on Shockey in the eighth or Miller in the ninth, then Scheffler is your guy.

AccuScore projects 652 yards and five touchdowns for Scheffler this season.  That’s just 100 yards less than Shockey’s projected stats, and one touchdown less than Dallas Clark.  That makes Scheffler a steal, considering you can get him three to five rounds later.

The Sleepers

Vernon Davis – Davis is a poor man’s Antonio Gates, but has yet to live up to that potential with a big season.  Alex Smith had a down season last year, and the combo of Trent Dilfer and Shaun Hill didn’t exactly provide a solid quarterback unit for Davis.  With Mike Martz in San Francisco, Alex Smith could see a turnaround, at least to his 2006 numbers.  That bodes well for Davis, who caught 13 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns from Smith over the final four games of the 2006 season.

Alge Crumpler – Crumpler’s numbers were down last season thanks to a horrible quarterback situation in Atlanta.  While Vince Young was not exactly the best quarterback in the NFL last season, the move to Tennessee should restore Crumpler’s value.  From 2004 to 2006, Crumpler averaged 810 receiving yards and six touchdowns.  According to AccuScore projections, only Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and Kellen Winslow will catch for more than 810 yards this year.

Owen Daniels – Last year Daniels saw the majority of his success when Matt Schaub was playing.  With Schaub under center, Daniels averaged 4.5 catches per game for 56.8 yards per game.  Without Schaub, Daniels averaged 2.6 catches per game for 28.6 yards per game.  There’s no guarantee that Schaub stays healthy all season, but Daniels is capable of topping 900 receiving yards this season if Schaub can play all 16 games.

The Busts

Todd Heap – Heap saw a big drop off last season due to injuries, playing in just six games, catching 23 passes for 239 yards and a touchdown.  I’m not worried about the injuries as much this season.  What worries me is the poor offense the Ravens employ.  Heap is being drafted before guys like Miller, Crumpler, and Scheffler, but AccuScore only projects three touchdowns this season, a strong reflection of the Ravens’ offense led by Kyle Boller.

Ben Watson – The Patriots may have had the top offense in the league last season, but after week five Watson was barely a part of that offense.  Watson missed four games, but in the seven games he only caught one touchdown, and never caught for more than 43 yards in a single game.  That 43 yard, one touchdown performance happened in the same game.  Watson just isn’t a reliable tight end on a weekly basis.

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