AccuScore - Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football - Running Backs

Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The running back by committee era has led to the downfall of the “two running backs” draft strategy. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad move to dedicate your first two picks to running backs, but depending on your draft position, you have options now that won’t sink your fantasy team. For me, it’s all about position.

If I’m drafting at the top of the first round, I know I’m going to get a top option like LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, or Brian Westbrook. There might be a big gap between the running backs at the end of the second round, and the running backs at the end of the fourth round, but I can afford that gap because I have one of the top guys in the game.

If I’m drafting at the end of the first round, my choices are between guys like Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, and Marshawn Lynch. These guys can be solid producers, but they come with bigger question marks than the top three guys. I know I’m set at running back with Tomlinson or Westbrook. I’m not so sure about my situation in the later part of the round. This is where I will dedicate both of my top picks to running backs, just to hedge my bets and avoid the many injury situations that crop up over the course of a season.

Generally I don’t like to place position restrictions on each round. I am much more comfortable playing the draft by ear. If you plan on picking up a running back with your first pick, and a wide receiver with your second, but Larry Johnson slips to you in the mid-second round, do you pass him up because you had a plan in place? That being said, I do like to make it a habit of drafting three to four running backs with my first six picks. After the sixth round you’re picking between guys like Kevin Smith, Deuce McAllister, and Felix Jones, aka, the guys on the wrong end of their committees.

That seems like it leaves no room for other positions, but as I said in my quarterback preview, you can get by without taking a quarterback in the top rounds. There are also plenty of wide receiver options later in the draft, including some sleepers I will get in to in my wide receiver preview. For now I’m sticking with the “two running backs” theory, because in the end it never hurts to have two solid running backs as the foundation of your team.

Guys I’m targeting

Marion Barber – Julius Jones averaged 10 carries a game last season, and Barber was still the seventh ranked fantasy running back. The addition of Felix Jones to the offense won’t change much. Barber has averaged 4.8 yards per carry the last two seasons, and has put up 28 touchdowns over that span.

With Tony Romo establishing himself as a legit star last season, opponents could focus on shutting down the passing game. This leaves Barber open for a bigger role on the offense. AccuScore projects 1700 total yards and 16 touchdowns, all of which seems achievable in my book if the opponents decide to focus on Romo and Terrell Owens.

Ryan Grant – After taking over as the starter in week eight, Grant was outstanding, averaging 100 total yards per game, and recording a touchdown in his last six games. There may be one camp that suggests the opposing defenses will focus on Grant, and make Rodgers win the games. I feel the Packers will stress the run more in order to take some pressure off Rodgers.

Despite his numbers last season being as good as they were, Grant only received more than 25 carries on one occasion, and only received more than 20 carries on three occasions. If Grant becomes a 30 carry running back, he turns in to a steal at the end of the first round.

Maurice Jones-Drew – He slumped heavily in the first three games last season, putting up a total of nine fantasy points before his week four bye. Over his next 12 games, MJD averaged 12.67 fantasy points per week. That type of production is good enough to be a top ten running back.

Fred Taylor isn’t getting any younger in Jacksonville, and MJD is getting the touchdown chances. He’s being drafted at the start of the third round in most drafts, but I would take him as high as the start of the second round. AccuScore projections have him putting up 1500 total yards and about 13 touchdowns. He’s a threat in both the running and passing games, so those projections sound realistic.

The Sleepers

Thomas Jones – With the Brett Favre trade, Jones sees a value increase from the time I originally wrote this column. I originally wrote:

"He’s the main running back on his team. His team doesn’t have much of a passing game, which means they need him to run well. From 2003 to 2006 he averaged over four yards per carry, only to see that number drop to 3.6 in 2007. The big killer was the touchdown total, which was one. That just suggests bad luck in my book. I have a feeling Jones will see a big bounce back season, with 1400 total yards and eight touchdowns. That’s a very solid flex option, and good enough for number two running back duties."

Now Jones has a passing game, Alan Faneca was brought in to shore up the offensive line, and because of these two additions, I am confident in Jones' ability to return to a four yard per carry running back.

Rashad Mendenhall – Mendenhall is going at the end of the seventh round in most drafts. From the looks of things, he should be taking the Jerome Bettis role of vulturing touchdowns and picking up some second half yardage when the Steelers have a lead. If Parker goes down, Mendenhall turns in to a lower end number one, or a high end number two fantasy option. At the current rate he is a low end number two option, or a solid flex back.

Ricky Williams – With all of his off the field problems, Ricky Williams is a big risk. However, the Dolphins have upgraded their offensive line, and Ronnie Brown hasn’t exactly been the picture of a healthy running back the last few years. With the season nearing a start, Brown is not 100 percent healthy, which means Williams could play a bigger role to start the season. AccuScore projections have Williams averaging 4.4 yards per carry, and putting up 629 yards and four touchdowns as a backup. Williams should improve on those numbers if Brown doesn't start the season healthy.

The Busts

Willis McGahee – McGahee put up 1400 yards and eight toughdowns last year, which are decent numbers, but not for a late first rounder. AccuScore is projecting similar numbers this season, with 1233 yards on the ground, 239 through the air, and eight touchdowns in simulations. This is no surprise, as not much has changed in Baltimore from last year to this year on the offense. Kyle Boller is still the quarterback, and even if Joe Flacco takes over, he won’t be a considerable upgrade this year.

McGahee is going in the mid-second round, but you would be better off going with a solid wide receiver like Terrell Owens or Braylon Edwards at that point, or a different running back option like Jamal Lewis, who is projected for 1550 total yards and 11 touchdowns in AccuScore simulations.

Laurence Maroney – The Patriots offense was dynamic last season, but Maroney didn’t play a huge part in the offense, putting up 835 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games. Maroney only topped the 100 yard mark three times, only saw more than 20 carries on one occasion, and only scored a touchdown in five games.

At the end of the second round you can do much better than Maroney, like going with one of the many number one wide receivers available, or even going with a quarterback like Peyton Manning or Tony Romo if they are still available.

Willie Parker – The Steelers drafted Rashard Mendenhall in the first round this year, and while this doesn’t signal the end for Parker, it does signal a drop in value. Parker is coming off a major leg injury, so chances are he will be used in a role similar to Julius Jones last season. I don’t view him as that much better than guys like Thomas Jones, Fred Taylor, or even Jonathan Stewart, all of whom you can get a round or two later. I would pass on Parker in the fourth round and go with his quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, or maybe a solid number two receiver like Brandon Marshall or Roy Williams.

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