Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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In the game of football, the quarterback is the most important player on the field.  Chances are, if you have a solid quarterback, you have a solid team.  In the game of fantasy football, the quarterback position becomes less relevant.  It’s not that the position is not important.  Last year seven of the top ten point scorers were quarterbacks.  The thing is, in fantasy football, the quarterback position is easier to fill due to positional scarcity.

You start one quarterback, two running backs, and three wide receivers.  That means that each week, 75 percent of the NFL’s starting running backs will start in your fantasy league.  56 percent of the NFL’s starting wide receivers will start in your league.  Only 37.5 percent of the starting NFL quarterbacks will start in your fantasy league each week.

For this reason, I avoid taking a quarterback early.  I’m not saying that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Tony Romo will be bad options.  AccuScore has them forecasted to be the top three quarterbacks this season.  According to AccuScore projections, the difference between these guys, and guys like Matt Hasselbeck and Ben Roethlisberger, comes down to only a few points per week.

You can grab Hasselbeck and Roethlisberger in the fifth round, rather than going for Brady, Romo, or Manning in the first two rounds.  The difference is only a few points per week, but the difference between a second round running back like Brandon Jacobs, and a fifth round running back like Fred Taylor will be a much bigger gap.  It may seem like you’re loading up your roster by taking one of the top three quarterbacks, but really you’re just weakening your other positions.

Guys I’m Targeting

My top three guys are Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Anderson, and Matt Hasselbeck.  In most drafts, five quarterbacks go off the board before these three are picked, and all go around the fifth round.

Ben Roethlisberger – He was the number four point scorer last year behind Brady, Romo, and Peyton Manning.  The Steelers have added a new receiver in Limas Sweed, giving Roethlisberger five targets on offense, including three solid fantasy options in Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and Heath Miller.  The Steelers also added Rashard Mendenhall to bolster the running game which could bring up concern that Big Ben’s numbers will be cut in to.  I would disagree.

Last year there were only two games where the Steelers ran for less than 90 yards.  In those two games, Ben averaged 204 passing yards, and put up two touchdowns and three interceptions.  In the games where the running game was working, Ben threw for 211 yards per game, and put up 30 touchdowns, with just eight interceptions.  If you believe that Mendenhall will strengthen the Steelers’ running game, then look for Ben to have a big year.

Derek Anderson – To illustrate how I feel about Anderson, here is a comparison.

Player A – In his first year as a starter he averaged 237 yards, 1.81 touchdowns, and 1.19 interceptions per game.

Player B - In his first year as a starter he averaged 242 yards, 1.58 touchdowns, and 1.08 interceptions per game.

Player A is Derek Anderson from last season.  Player B is Tony Romo from 2006.

I feel Anderson is this year’s Tony Romo.  He had a great season last year, good enough to make him the sixth best quarterback in the game.  However, he came from nowhere, just like Romo, and that leads to uncertainty about whether he can repeat his performance.  The injury problems to Anderson have caused his value to slip a bit, which means you can probably get him towards the end of the fifth round, or the early sixth round.  I'm not worried about the injuries, I think they're just minor, and I’m a believe that last year was no fluke.

Matt Hasselbeck –Last year only three quarterbacks threw more passes than Hasselbeck.  Of his 562 attempts, Hasselbeck completed 62.6 percent of his passes for just under 400 yards, and a 28:12 TD:INT ratio.  The only quarterback to throw for more yards, more touchdowns, and fewer interceptions was Tom Brady.

There is no doubt that with the uncertainty of the Seattle running game, the passing game will be the main focus again this year.  Seattle also has the advantage of playing in the worst division in football, which will help to pad Hasselbeck’s numbers.  Last season Hasselbeck averaged 259.3 yards and two touchdowns per game against NFC West opponents.  He’s a solid option to have in the sixth round.

The Sleepers

Jay Cutler – In his first full season as a starter, Cutler threw for almost 3500 yards, with 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.  He’s got an under-rated receiving group this year with Brandon Marshall, Darrell Jackson, Brandon Stokley, Tony Scheffler, and my sleeper wide receiver Eddie Royal.  AccuScore projections have Cutler throwing for 24 touchdowns and 16 interceptions this season, with over 3700 yards.  That seems like a modest improvement over last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Cutler ends up throwing for 30 touchdowns and 4000 yards.

David Garrard – Garrard threw for 2500 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions last year in 12 games.  Excluding the game where he got hurt in Indianapolis, Garrard threw one touchdown in each game he played, and averaged over 200 yards per game.  If Garrard can avoid the injuries this season, he will easily put up a 3000 yard, 25 touchdown season, which is especially good considering his lack of interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers –Rodgers is in the best situation he can be in, especially with Favre gone.  He’s got a solid receiving unit, led by Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.  He has a running back coming off a great season in Ryan Grant.  His defense is led by two young stars in AJ Hawk and Nick Barnett, which will leave the offense in great field position.  Rodgers easily reaches 20 touchdowns and 3000 yards this season, making him a solid number two option.

The Busts

Carson Palmer – Name a quarterback that had more interceptions than Carson Palmer last season.  The answer:  there was none.  Despite having a receiving pair of Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmanzadeh, Palmer only put up 4100 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions.  The yardage is good, but the interceptions are killer, and there aren’t enough touchdowns to make up for that.

Palmer is going in the fourth round of most drafts, before guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Anderson, and Matt Hasselbeck.  What do those guys have in common?  All threw for more touchdowns, and fewer interceptions than Palmer.  Palmer will put up good numbers, but he is not going to be the number five fantasy quarterback at the end of the season.  AccuScore forecasts rank him 11^th this year, behind my sleepers Jay Cutler and David Garrard.

Eli Manning – Which Manning will show up this season?  Was it the regular season version that threw 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, and averaged 208 yards per game?  Or will it be the playoff version that threw for six touchdowns, one interception, and 214 yards per game?

Manning really took off on a hot streak after his four touchdown, one interception performance against the Patriots in week 17.  Counting that game, Manning only had two games where he threw for more than two touchdowns, playoffs included.  He had only two games where he threw for more than 300 yards.  He had six games where he threw for two or more interceptions.  In 12 games he threw for less than two touchdowns, and recorded an interception in half of those games.  Despite his big performance in the playoffs, he is not a solid fantasy starter, and shouldn’t be drafted before guys like Jay Cutler and David Garrard.

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twilliams said:

Whatchusay, Let's review Palmer. First, I followed that stat line with this: "The yardage is good, but the interceptions are killer, and there aren’t enough touchdowns to make up for that." The yardage is good, but he threw a lot of interceptions and not enough touchdowns. You suggest that he struggled because of the bad defense. What makes you think the defense has improved? I'm not saying Palmer won't be a top 12 QB. I'm just saying that he's going off the board before Roethlisberger, Anderson, and Hasselbeck, and I think he will end up with fewer points than all three of them.

August 31, 2008

WhatchuSay said:

Way off on Carson. Only 4100 yrds? Even with a bad season last year he was still a top 10 QB in all fantasy leagues. The Super Bowl winning QB, Eli Manning also had 20 interceptions! If all the QB's in the league had 575 passing attempts like Carson did, the leading INT's for the season would be waaaaay more than 20. Plus last season league leading 20 INT's is the lowest amount in the last 7 years. Most QB's that lead the league in INT's are over 20. In 2006 Roethlisberger threw 23 INT's with only 469 passing attempts. Little unfair evaluation on Carson. Especially since he was trying all season to make up for a bad defense.

August 30, 2008

Chickenmilk said:

Tom Brady is definitely number one on everyones draftboard, but the problem with record breaking seasons is that it is hard to repeat the following season. I had Peyton Manning during his 49 TD season in 2004. I picked him with last pick in the second round. The following year, he went in the first round.... even the first pick, but ended up throwing only 28 TDs. Romo was my sleeper pick last season. I picked up Romo in the 7th round last season, so there are good QBs available in the later rounds. By far one of my best late round draft picks. Carson Palmer goes from a top tier QB to a 4th tier in one bad season, but the bengals had no running game last year, so Palmer ended up throwing the most pass attempts in his career. The addition of a quality TE and the return of RB Chris Perry should greatly improve his fantasy numbers.

August 19, 2008

Ed Reed said:

this was a great article. For the longest time I had been wondering why you would pick a running back instead of someone like tom brady, peyton manning, or romo when the quarterbacks were projected to score so many more points. The concept of positional scarcity now makes sense. Thanks a lot Tim.

August 15, 2008

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