The key stats that AccuScore recommends focusing on at WR and TE are % of Team Receptions, Reception Efficiency, TD per Reception, and % of Receptions that go for 20+ yards.

Team % of receptions, TD per Reception and % of Receptions that go for 20+ yards are self-explanatory.  Reception Efficiency is a subjective AccuScore measure of what percentage of passes that could conceivably been caught by a receiver were caught.  Now not all catch-able passes are created equally.  If you are running a crossing pattern to the left and Peyton Manning hits you perfectly on the right shoulder, it’s a lot more catch-able than when Eli Manning throws it 6 inches behind your left shoulder.  Both would be subjectively scored as “catch-able” but it’s clearly not the same thing.  While overall completion % is slightly below 60%, the league average for AccuScore’s catch-able passes is 64.5%.

RECEIVERS ON THE RISE

ANDRE JOHNSON
Johnson caught a sky-high 31% of his team’s receptions.  However, Johnson only had 5 TDs out of 103 Receptions in 2006.  While this 4.9% is half of the 9.8% by Buffalo’s Lee Evans and a third of Terrell Owens’ 14.9%, it was still higher than the rest of the Texans in 2006 (4.0%).  Johnson could be in the 8%+ range if he played with a better offense that could actually get in the Red Zone with greater efficiency.

Houston made a well-publicized push to get Matt Schaub to replace David Carr.  They also picked up Ahman Green who is clearly on the downside of his career but should nonetheless help the offense.  If Houston’s offense converts on 3rd Down at a higher rate and gets more Red Zone opportunities, then Johnson could double his reception TD rate and make him a clear-cut Top 10 Fantasy WR.

T.J. HOUSHMANDZADEH
Chad Johnson is rated higher than Houshmandzadeh on 99% of fantasy cheat sheets, but AccuScore has Houshmandzadeh as Chad Johnson’s equal, if not his superior.  In most salary cap based leagues, Johnson’s salary is higher than TJ’s so dollar-for-dollar Houshmandzadeh is the more valuable WR.  Here’s why.

In games he played, TJ got 31% of his team’s receptions vs. 27% for Chad Johnson.  Johnson averaged more yards per reception, but Houshmandzadeh actually has receptions of 20+ or more at a slightly better rate than Johnson.  The most impressive thing is Houshmadnzadeh’s Reception Efficiency which is 76.7% vs Johnson’s 63.1%.  Same passer, Carson Palmer, but very different levels of Reception Efficiency. 

Houshmandzadeh benefits by having the #1 CB focus on Johnson, so I’m not saying he’s necessarily more talented than Johnson, but he is a more productive fantasy performer.  His greater efficiency clearly makes him a preferred Red Zone target which is why 10% of his receptions result in a touchdown vs. 8.1% for Chad Johnson.  You could get Houshmadzadeh as the 8th or 9th WR in the fantasy draft, but you will find yourself with a Top 5 talent.

CHRIS HENRY
I just ran down the benefits of drafting TJ Houshmandzadeh and now I’m here to say pick up Chris Henry before he returns from suspension.  The combination of physical skills and the attention that Johnson and Houshmandzadeh get from defenses helps Chris Henry covert 25% of his receptions into touchdowns.  His Reception Efficiency is just 54% which would be a concern if he were a #1 or #2 WR.  However, it’s clear that he is a preferred target in the Red Zone.  Completion Percentages and Receiver Efficiency is significantly lower in the Red Zone.  Therefore the 54% is actually a decent number given where so many of Chris Henry’s receptions occur – in the End Zone.

VINCENT JACKSON
His Reception Efficiency is just 52.3%.  Antonio Gates reached 69.2% and Eric Parker had 72.5% playing with Philip Rivers.  So why do I like his value?  He’s hitting that 3rd Season which is the big leap forward season.  With Eric Parker out until October, Jackson should get significantly more looks to start the season.  He’s a big play WR so I don’t expect efficiency over 60% but if he can get that level then he should establish himself as the #1 WR and #2 overall receiver to Gates.  His % of Team Receptions could go from 11% to 17% through more looks and greater efficiency.

Vincent Jackson is 2nd in the league in TDs per Reception (21%).  He could go from the 35th best WR to the Top 10 in a blink of an eye.  However, if he doesn’t show any signs of improving his Reception Efficiency and if rookie Craig Davis steps up immediately he could stay right where he is.  WR Malcolm Floyd also produces a lot of TDs per reception (18 career receptions with 4 TDs).  I think Jackson will emerge this season and be a great late round draft pick

BRANDON JONES
He goes from #3 on the depth chart to #1 with the departure of Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade.  Jones was able to get 4 TDs out of his 27 receptions.  He led the team in receiving touchdowns.  However, his Reception Efficiency was just 54.5% which was lower than Wade’s 68% and Bennett’s 57%.  With Vince Young still an unproven passer I don’t expect Jones to significantly improve on his Reception Efficiency.  I do expect his % of total team receptions to improve from 15% to 22% as the #1 WR.  While he is still not a top rated fantasy WR he’s someone to keep an eye on this year.

VALUE “UP IN THE AIR”

CHRIS CHAMBERS
Chambers had a huge year in 2005 with 82 REC, 1100 YDS, 11 TDs but then followed that up with just 59 REC, 677 YDS, and 4 TDs in 2006.  Why did this happen?  Chambers’ Reception Efficiency was just 53.6% in 2006.  Ugh. 

You might think that the uneven QB situation (Culpper to Harrington to Cleo Lemon) caused this drop-off, but other WRs, Marty Booker and Wes Welker (now in New England) had Reception Efficiency numbers of 79%+.

AccuScore is usually very good at predicting when a player will play better or worse than his overall average.  In 2006, Chris Chambers was a notable exception.  After being burned by him in 2006, we are going to give Chambers the benefit of the doubt.  An aging Trent Green and a clean slate will help Chambers reach efficiency of at least 64% (league average).  If he can do this then he could end up converting on 5 of 8 passes on average and not just 4 of 8.

If Chambers can reach an average Reception Effiency he could reach 75 Receptions, 900 Yards, and 6 TDs.  If Chambers hit 70% Rec Eff and also get 25% of the team’s receptions (more looks with Wes Welker gone, and Ted Ginn still inexperienced) then he would go back to being an 85+ Rec, 1200 YD, 10+ TD type WR.

MIKE FURREY
Furrey’s outstanding 26% of team receptions and 80% reception efficiency resulted in a 98 reception year.  However, his Long REC % and TD per REC were just 7.8% and 6.1% respectively.  We all know about Calvin Johnson’s arrival in Detroit.  There are also 2 new RBs, Tatum Bell and TJ Duckett. 

Mike Martz is always going to prefer throwing the ball, but the combination of an improved running game and an improved team in general would result in a lower percentage of passing plays.  Last year Detroit found itself down in the 2nd Half of most games requiring the team to pass on every down.  If they do improve with the additions they’ve made then they actually could be playing from ahead in some games.  This results in more rushes to wind the clock down.

I expect Furrey’s % of Team Receptions to go from 26% to 18% this year.  Expect receptions to go way down 65 which would drastically cut down his fantasy value.

DEVERY HENDERSON
I would put him in the Value Rising section if the Saints hadn’t drafted Robert Meachem in the first round.  Henderson’s per reception numbers were outstanding in 2006.  Compare him to Terrell Owens as some other notable explosive WRs.

Henderson led the league in yards per reception because 35% of his receptions went for 20+ yards.  He produced a ton of TDs per reception.  With Joe Horn gone, Henderson is a solid starter with Marques Colston.  Before the draft AccuScore had Henderson getting 18% of his team’s WRs.  While his Long REC % and TD % would decline slightly as he gets more short receptions, they would still be near the top of the league and Devery Henderson would be a solid Top 20 WR headed for 60 REC, 1000+ yards and 9+ TDs.  However, the Saints drafted Robert Meachem and still have WR Terrance Copper who had good numbers per reception. 

Henderson is a WR on the rise but not as high as he could have been.

Brown has excellent numbers and has Top 12 ability if his Team Rec % goes to 21%+.  Donte’ Stallworth is in New England and Brown should be the #1 WR.  However, Donovan McNabb is 75%, by his measure.  That might mean he’s really at 50% if he were honest.  If McNabb struggles then Brown may not improve on these numbers.

Patrick Crayton definitely benefits from defenses focusing on TO, Terry Glenn, Jason Witten, Anthony Fasano, etc.  He makes the most of his opportunities with great efficiency (over 80%) and very good TD per REC.  There are simply too many receivers on Dallas and a player with an ego that’s too big for Crayton to emerge which is why his value is up in the air.  However, if the injury bug hits in Dallas, Crayton could be an excellent free agent pick-up in specific weeks.

Bernard Berrian’s Reception Efficiency would have been better if he often wasn’t the only Bears receiver capable of completing a pass over 20 yards.  However, his Team Rec % was very high because he was the only Bears WR capable of completing a pass over 20 yards and Rex Grossman loves the deep ball.  However, the Bears drafted Greg Olsen, added Devin Hester to the offense, and expect more from Rashied Davis.  They believe Rex Grossman will be better at completing passes to his 3rd or even 4th option in 2007. This will help the Bears but will cut into Berrian’s individual production.