SHAUN ALEXANDER
Obviously a broken bone in your foot is not going to help your fantasy production, but even before his injury, Shaun Alexander’s production really dropped in 2006 after Steve Hutchinson departed for Minnesota.  In his MVP 2005 Season, Alexander’s Long Run % was 20%.  In 2006 his Long Run % dropped to 15%.  This was the main reason why his average ypc went from 5.0 to 3.6.  Alexander’s average short yards per carry is just 2.05.  I don’t want to take too much away from Shaun Alexander’s former greatness, but without the best O-Line, Alexander’s numbers are not expected to ever get back to the lofty 2003-2005 levels.  Making Alexander’s 2007 even tougher is the fact that he faces some superior rushing defenses including Baltimore, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. 

There are two other stats that devalue Alexander.  First, his percentage of team receptions was just 5.8% compared to other top first round RBs like Larry Johnson (16.1%), Steven Jackson (24%), and Frank Gore (24%).  Even if Alexander is healthy, the Seahawks may want to prevent him from too much wear and tear by giving backup Maurice Morris more carries.  Alexander’s overall % of team touches was 50.8% in games he played in 2006.  That % could go down to 45%.

The second key stat is his age:  He’ll be 30 on Aug 30th.  Any RB in his 8th Season, 7th Season as the starter, is going to have wear and tear.  AccuScore forecasts Alexander to be the 7th Best Fantasy RB in 2007.  By not playing with a broken foot his short yards per carry should improve and he will break slightly more Long Runs (~ 16.5%, up from 15%) translating to an average yards per carry to 4.4.  However, his age and potential drop in touches still makes me prefer several RBs lower on the list including:  Laurence Maroney, Rudi Johnson, Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Cedric Benson.

JULIUS JONES / MARION BARBER III
These Dallas RBs shared the ball in 2006.  Here’s how they compare with each other:

Jones got the bulk of the non-Red Zone carries while Barber got the short yardage and Red Zone carries.  Barber led the NFC in Rush TDs with nearly 10% of his carries resulting in a TD.  Unless Jones broke a long run for a TD he didn’t score resulting in a TD% of just 1.3%.

Frankly, Barber was the more dynamic RB per carry.  His Long Run % was a sky high 25%, but this would surely decline if were to get more non-Red Zone carries.  Of course his sky high TD per Touch % would also decline if this happened.  Barber was not only better at breaking Long Runs, but he also did more when he was hit around the line of scrimmage than Julius Jones (2.39 short carry vs. 2.16).  Barber also is a better Receiving option getting 8% of his team’s receptions vs. Jones’ 3.4% in games he played.

We’ll have to wait and see how the new coaches in Dallas decide to use Jones and Barber, but if Barber increases his Team Touch % to 35% and Jones declines to 20% you could see a 2nd Round RB in Marion Barber.

A few RBs who will disappoint owners this season include:

CHESTER TAYLOR – Everyone knows his touches will decline with the addition of Adrian Peterson.  His stats were good in 2006 (1200 yds, 42 rec), but his production per carry was not very good (13.9% Long Run, 2.28 Avg Short Carry).  I expect Adrian Peterson to outperform Taylor in these key categories and go from sharing the carries 50/50 to start the season, but get 70% of carries by mid-season.

CADILLAC WILLIAMS – An improved passing game should open up some more opportunities, but even if Cadillac improves significantly, his Long Run % and TD production won’t reach rookie levels.  Frankly, Cadillac’s reputation is highly inflated by a few long, relatively meaningless carries, in his first 3 games.  Three of his 5 longest runs came in his first 3 games. 

DEANGELO WILLIAMS – It’s human nature to look for the next big thing.  Injuries and inconsistency have soured people on DeShaun Foster, who was the next big thing in Carolina back when Stephen Davis was the big deal in Carolina.  Most expect Williams to start getting more carries than Foster.  Obviously more touches will increase production, but Williams has not statistically demonstrated he deserves more touches than Foster.  These two were basically the same rusher. 
Jones got the bulk of the non-Red Zone carries while Barber got the short yardage and Red Zone carries.  Barber led the NFC in Rush TDs with nearly 10% of his carries resulting in a TD.  Unless Jones broke a long run for a TD he didn’t score resulting in a TD% of just 1.3%.

Frankly, Barber was the more dynamic RB per carry.  His Long Run % was a sky high 25%, but this would surely decline if were to get more non-Red Zone carries.  Of course his sky high TD per Touch % would also decline if this happened.  Barber was not only better at breaking Long Runs, but he also did more when he was hit around the line of scrimmage than Julius Jones (2.39 short carry vs. 2.16).  Barber also is a better Receiving option getting 8% of his team’s receptions vs. Jones’ 3.4% in games he played.

We’ll have to wait and see how the new coaches in Dallas decide to use Jones and Barber, but if Barber increases his Team Touch % to 35% and Jones declines to 20% you could see a 2nd Round RB in Marion Barber.

A few RBs who will disappoint owners this season include:

CHESTER TAYLOR – Everyone knows his touches will decline with the addition of Adrian Peterson.  His stats were good in 2006 (1200 yds, 42 rec), but his production per carry was not very good (13.9% Long Run, 2.28 Avg Short Carry).  I expect Adrian Peterson to outperform Taylor in these key categories and go from sharing the carries 50/50 to start the season, but get 70% of carries by mid-season.

CADILLAC WILLIAMS – An improved passing game should open up some more opportunities, but even if Cadillac improves significantly, his Long Run % and TD production won’t reach rookie levels.  Frankly, Cadillac’s reputation is highly inflated by a few long, relatively meaningless carries, in his first 3 games.  Three of his 5 longest runs came in his first 3 games. 

DEANGELO WILLIAMS – It’s human nature to look for the next big thing.  Injuries and inconsistency have soured people on DeShaun Foster, who was the next big thing in Carolina back when Stephen Davis was the big deal in Carolina.  Most expect Williams to start getting more carries than Foster.  Obviously more touches will increase production, but Williams has not statistically demonstrated he deserves more touches than Foster.  These two were basically the same rusher. 

THAT’S A NOT SO QUICK REVIEW OF RUNNING BACKS, HOW ABOUT THOSE RECEIVERS?