Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

One of the goals of AccuScore was to mathematically describe players using key stats that are better than some of your traditional stats.  Here we’ll focus on what Running Backs could potentially take off in ’07 vs. those you need to be careful drafting.  AccuScore doesn’t think much of the stat: average yards per carry.  Most starting RBs run for 4.0 to 5.0 yards per carry.  Most people use “average” to describe the most common result.  But did you know that only 20% of carries actually result in a run of 4, 5 or 6 yards?  We all watch football enough to know that most carries (58%) are for 3 yards or less.  The key for any RB to average 4+ yards is to break a long run of 8+ yards (~16.7% is league average). 

 Do you remember how that chop blocking O-Line in Denver was able to help Clinton Portis bust a long run in over 20% of his carries? This helped Portis average 5.5 yards per carry from ’02-’03.  When he went to Washington in 2004 this Long Run % (% of carries 8+ yards) plummeted to under 13% and Portis’s YPC went down to 3.8. 

While individual talent is related to Long Run %, it is often more a reflection of how good the offensive line is.  LaDainian Tomlinson average 3.9 to 4.3 ypc from ’04-05 but when rookie Marcus McNeil started dominating in ’06, LT’s Long Run % went up and he shattered records. 

AccuScore’s tip is to evaluate RBs on these criteria:

1. Were the additions or subtractions on the O-Line that will impact an RB’s ability to bust long runs?

2. Are there unnoticed RBs who are good at mustering positive yards even when they are hit around the line of scrimmage?  These guys could take off, if the O-Line starts opening up holes for them.  Any starting RB can run for 15 yards when he’s not tackled, but not every RB can run for 2.5 yards when he’s hit at the line of scrimmage.

3. Percentage (%) of his team’s total touches (rushing and receiving).

VALUE ON THE RISE

WILLIS MCGAHEE
Jamal Lewis’s Long Run % was just 11.8% in Baltimore in 2006.  Willis McGahee’s % was 13.8% in Buffalo in 2006.  Both players average right around 2.3 yards per short carry.  The reason why Baltimore is excited about McGahee is his Long Run % was not only better than Jamal Lewis’s, it was considerably better than his back-up Anthony Thomas (8.8%) demonstrating that McGahee did as well as you could expect given the Buffalo O-Line.  Jamal Lewis’s backup, Mike Anderson, only carried the ball 39 times in 2006, but his Long Run % was 18.4%, a whopping 7% more than starter Jamal Lewis.

Baltimore spent its first round pick on Auburn’s Ben Grubbs who they are hoping could have an impact like fellow Auburn lineman, Marcus McNeil, in San Diego.  They also got Maryland’s Jared Gaither in the supplemental draft.   If the O-Line is better and Willis McGahee can do what backup Mike Anderson could do in Baltimore, then you have Willis McGahee breaking a Long Run over 16% of the time.  

If McGahee’s Long Run % goes from 13.8% to 16% his ypc go from 3.8 to 4.2, and his fantasy production increases by 10%!  McGahee’s forecasted RB rank would improve from 15th to 8th.

REGGIE BUSH
Bush won’t hit his full potential as the #1 Fantasy Player until Deuce McAllister leaves the team or becomes the backup.  In 2006 Deuce got 36% of touches while Bush go 29%.  Deuce deserves his carries as he is a very tough runner averaging 2.8 yards per short carry vs. Bush’s 2.1. 

However, Reggie Bush is on the rise even if his touches don’t increase significantly. Why? That Long Run percentage.  Most people were disappointed by Bush’s meager 3.6 yards per carry his rookie season.  AccuScore’s 2006 forecasted expected Bush to struggle in this stat because he faced a number of quality run defenses in ’06.

Reggie’s Long Run % was just 10.8% (lower than Jamal Lewis’s!) from Week 1 to Week 9.  However, from Week 10 to Week 17 his Long Run % skyrocketed to 20%!  This doesn’t even include some long receptions he had like the one in the Playoffs vs. the Bears.

Reggie’s Long Run % will be near 20% in 2007 resulting in more yards per carry, more first downs for the Saints and even though his percentage of team touches may not increase much, his total touches will increase by increasing the number of first downs.  By the way, all of Reggie’s rushing and receiving TDs came after Week 9.  Expect at least 12+ TDs in 2007.

LENDALE WHITE
That’s right, Reggie’s USC teammate may be a fantasy afterthought, but he could really produce in 2007.  Right now White still looks to be in the best position to be the starter in Tennessee.  I was surprised to see that LenDale White was in the Top 5 of the league in Average Short Carry.  His 2.8 is considerably higher than fantasy superstars, LaDainian Tomlinson (2.38), Maurice Jones-Drew (2.23), and Shaun Alexander (2.05).   White’s Long Run % was a paltry 9.1% which paled in comparison to last year’s starter in Tennessee, Travis Henry (16.7%). 

The Titans know that White is a power RB and not a one cut and go type guy like Henry.  They don’t expect him to be busting long runs at a comparable rate.  However, White has lost weight and looks quicker on his feet.  He’s also going to be in his 2nd season and will be more comfortable with the speed of NFL defenders. 

White only got 13.8% of Team Touches.  Tennessee lost its 2 leading receivers and leading rusher from 2006.  The average starting RB that does not get a lot of receptions averages around 45% of his team’s touches. 

If LenDale White’s touches increase to 40% and his Long Run % goes from 9.1% to 13.5%, his fantasy production goes from non-existent as a rookie to a solid Top 20 RB.

TRAVIS HENRY
Everyone and their mother knows that Travis Henry could explode in Denver because his running style fits perfectly with the Denver system.  Henry’s Long Run% of 16.7% in 2006 should approach 20% in Denver.  His average yards per carry should go from 4.5 to right around 4.9.  The extra production not only generates around 10 more yards per game, it also generates one or two more first downs.  The extra first downs lead to more rush attempts. 

However, there is a slight drawback to playing in Denver --- Mike Bell gets the goal line rushes.  Henry ran for 7 TDs on 270 carries (2.6%).  Starting RBs percentage typically ranges from 2% to 5%.  Even though Henry’s rushing yardage should be excellent, do not expect his TD% to skyrocket simply because Mike Bell will still get most goal line rushes.

Travis Henry averaged 86.5 yards on 19.3 carries with 7 TDs in Tennessee.   If Travis Henry were the guy and did not have to share carries with Mike Bell he would be good for 23 carries, over 100 yards and 12+ TDs – a clear Top 5 RB.  But because his touches won’t go up in Denver due to sharing the ball with Mike Bell, his carries are expected to be at 19.3 again this year.  He should be able to generate 95 yards per game on these carries.  Travis Henry’s value is on the rise, but maybe not as high as it could be.

A few other RBs who should improve their fantasy value by 20%+ include:

LAURENCE MARONEY – Ability to get tough yards and score on the goal-line not as good as retired Corey Dillon, but touches should skyrocket from 26% to 45%.

CEDRIC BENSON – Touches should increase from 23% to 50% which should double his fantasy production.

JERIOUS NORWOOD – Don’t expect 23% of his carries to go for 8+ yards, but expect his touches to increase from 16.7% to 40% with the suspension of Vick and the early season injuries to Warrick Dunn.

JOSEPH ADDAI – Look for touches to increase from 35% to an Edgerrin James in Indy level of 50%.  More Red Zone carries will increase his TD / Carry percentage from 2.8% to 3.5%+.