NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE

GAME WINNERS

The team that wins over 50 percent of AccuScore Simulations has won over 63 percent of the time since tracking started in the 2006-2007 season. With off-season simulation enhancements, AccuScores game winner prediction accuracy has increased every season. On ESPN.coms Expert Pick page, AccuScore has always finished the season in the Top 3 (tied 1st in 08-09). Unlike other top ranked analysts, AccuScore never fell out of the top half of the rankings. Our consistent quantitative model is not subject to the same year-to-year highs and lows that a human analyst will experience.

GAMBLING ACCURACY

In an industry where the average accuracy of traditional handicappers is a shade over 51 percent (figure varies depending on source), AccuScore makes point spread and over/under predictions for every game. In cases where the simulation point spread or over/under is the same as the betting line no gambling prediction is made. Since 2006 AccuScore has been quite profitable.

In the table above R indicates a correct prediction, W an incorrect prediction, and % is accuracy [R / (R+W)]. The Units is based on a +100 units for a R prediction and a -110 for an W prediction. ROI is based on a starting bankroll of 3200 units (enough to make a point spread and over/under wager on every game in Week 1). Unlike traditional handicappers who guarantee locks sure to double, triple bankrolls each week, AccuScore provides gambling data for those with a sports investor mentality where 4 month ROI is substantially higher than non-sports investment markets (ex. stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.).

NCAA FOOTBALL

GAME WINNERS

Since launching in 2006 AccuScore has correctly predicted the winner in over 74 percent of games. CBSsports.com licenses AccuScores predictions for games involving Top 25 teams. On their experts pick page AccuScore has dominated the rankings. The one year it was second it was back by 1 game and was 9 games ahead of the third place expert. The key to AccuScores success is its ability to predict upset winners.

GAMBLING ACCURACY

While overall gambling accuracy peaked in 2006-2007, point spread and over/under predictions have been profitable each season in an industry where an overwhelming number of pick services are unprofitable (despite their claims).

Even in 2008-2009 when overall point spread accuracy was just 51.7 percent the performance of AccuScore on games where there was a significant difference between AccuScores simulation line and the betting line (5 or more points) the accuracy was excellent. In other words, when AccuScores predictions were at its most confident accuracy was extremely high. Each week in NCAA Football, AccuScore would provide roughly 100 different predictions, but the 20 to 25 that were most significantly confident delivered superior ROI.

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

GAME WINNERS

Since launching its MLB service in 2006 AccuScores simulation 50%+ winner has won 56.9% of the time. Overall game winner accuracy has improved each season through off-season simulation enhancements. More importantly, AccuScores simulation winner has actually won at a higher rate than the Las Vegas favorite. There are millions of dollars on the line and Vegas has developed an extremely profitable system for setting lines. By outperforming Vegas, even by a slight 0.5 to 1.0% margin AccuScore has proven its industry leading accuracy.

GAMBLING ACCURACY

When making gambling predictions AccuScore incorporates its concept of Side Value. Side Value involves 1) translating the Vegas betting line into a Vegas Winning % for each team; 2) comparing the Vegas winning % with the AccuScore simulation winning %; and 3) wagering on the team whose simulation winning percentage is higher than their Vegas winning percentage. In some cases this involves wagering on the team that is expected to lose. A team may only have a 40% chance of winning in simulations, but they may payoff 150 units on a 100 unit wager. The favorite may have a 60% chance of winning, but they may payoff just 50 units on a wager. Side Value is with the underdog because it would be better to have a 40% chance of winning 150 units (60 units profit) than the 60% chance of winning 50 units (30 units net).

MLB Side Value Gambling Accuracy has been excellent since AccuScores launch. AccuScore does not always win. It certainly has periods of big wins and periods of losses. The amount invested varies each season because there were different amounts of money required to wager on every game. For example, one may wager 1500 units for the first full day of games and if the bettor never is in the negative then they can continue to profit from that initial 1500 units without expanding the investment. However, if the bettor is negative early in the season they would need to add to their investment in order to wager on every game. In 2007 early season negatives were more substantial than in 2008 and 2006 which is why more investment was required in that season.

NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION

GAME WINNERS

AccuScore has done significant simulation enhancements in the off-season and overall game winner accuracy since 2007 is 70 percent. Despite being 0.1% behind Vegas in 2007-2008, AccuScore has had a substantial 1.8 percentage point edge over Vegas in 2008-2009. AccuScore is now more accurate than Vegas in predicting game winners for the NBA.

GAMBLING ACCURACY

Since 2007 AccuScore has made over 4000 point spread and over/under predictions and has delivered over 53 percent accuracy. With 3000 units wagered to start a season (15 point spreads, 15 over/unders to start season) AccuScore has delivered near 50 percent ROI this season and over 130 percent last season.

Even though overall point spread accuracy is unprofitable (587-546, 51.8%, -1360) the Daily Line Report clearly showed that in games where the Home Team is a solid to heavy favorite (favored by 6 or more points) the accuracy was low. This is because these games have more garbage time than other games and so many picks that were dead-on for the first 44 minutes of a game, could get blown up by garbage time the final 4 minutes.

When the home team was favored by 5.5 points or less the point spread prediction accuracy was outstanding.

NCAA BASKETBALL

GAME WINNERS

AccuScore simulates most division 1 NCAA Basketball match-ups which is well over 5,000 games per season. Overall game winner accuracy is over 74 percent. The graphic below is taken from CBSsports.com which started using AccuScores game winner forecast in the 2006-2007 Season. Prior to using AccuScore, the CBS experts had accuracy of 72.6 percent. Since using AccuScore the overall winning percentage has increased to 74.6 percent.

The fact is that Vegas favored teams win games over 74 percent of the time. Even the most inept game picker would likely predict winners at a 71 percent rate. At the same time teams that are favored by 2 or more points are upset at a rate of 22 percent of the time. The realistic range of prediction accuracy is 71 to 78 percent.

AccuScore increased CBSs accuracy by 2 percentage points. If the realistic range is 71 to 78 (7 percentage points) a 2 percentage point improvement is a 29 percent improvement.

GAMBLING ACCURACY

Overall point spread and over/under prediction accuracy has improved year-to-year from a negative -49 percent ROI to a profitable +2340 units in the 2008-2009 season.

NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE

In all honesty, NHL has not lived up to our high expectations, but come to think of it, we probably shouldnt be apologizing. In an industry where no company shows long-term sustained profits, AccuScore is profitable on Side Values in each of its two seasons. So AccuScore NHL may not be our crown jewel, but we are still the envy of many pick-sellers out there. In fact, some of our Winners Edge members are pick-sellers who take our NHL picks and re-sell the ones they like the most.

Youll notice that overall accuracy can be around 50% and still deliver profits when you use Side Value. The Side Value system assumes 100 units risked per game. When you win a wager on a heavy favorite you might only profit +30 to +50 units, but when a heavy underdog comes through you can end up with a +200 to +250 on a 100 unit wager.