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Like the guy in “Casablanca,” I’m
shocked to find gambling going on. I thought the Super Bowl was
about sportsmanship and fair play.
Now I find out there are betting services,
which--for a price--will let you in on their Super Bowl picks. The successful
services are right about 60 percent of the time. For that, some of their
customers are willing to throw them a parade. If they could hit
65 percent, they'd have streets named after them…maybe even an airport.
What if I told you there is a system
that has been right 85 percent of the time? That’s right –
85 percent. Don’t name a street after me. Or even throw
me a parade. (I’m rather shy and prefer to keep a low profile.)
Let me simplify things:
- In 34 of the 40 (85%) previous
Super Bowls, all you had to do to win your bet was pick the Super Bowl
winner --- Forget the spread. It’s irrelevant. Now there's a
trend worth writing about.
I know there have been 43 Super Bowl
games (not 40), but three ended up in point spread ties and therefore,
have nothing to do with this discussion.
In 34 of the Super Bowls, where there
has been a point spread winner, the favorites have covered 24 times. In
ten games, the underdogs not only covered but won straight up, needing no
help from the spread. That's what you call a pattern!
So now you know you don't have to spend
half a New York minute handicapping the spread. Odds are the spread will
have nothing to do with whether you win or lose your bet.
If you are thinking about picking New
Orleans, this is good news. The Saints are +185, which translates to
roughly a 37 percent win probability. AccuScore shows the Saints winning
45 percent of simulations, and just over 50 percent if it is windy and
rains. So not only are you getting odds with the Saints, you are getting
tremendous value.
However, the Colts are a favorite for
a reason and this should not be ignored. Don’t be scared away by the
fluctuating point spread, if you think the Colts will win it should
not matter. Remember, this is a trend play.
Also remember that the people who make
the spread factor in variables in Super Bowls that are ignored during
the season. The reason that being that there are millions who bet the
Super Bowl that never even watch a regular season NFL game.
The rest is up to you and the only
catch is you still have to pick the winner. That's not my problem. You
take it from here. |
